Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 5.21x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 8.30x, against a typical 2.30x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $61,958.80 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.26% lower, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.44% of its price, against 0.57% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 14 May 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.5% for April 2024, against 0.1% in March 2024. Producer prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 5.21x compares with 2.05x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.
What it means
Bitcoin recorded an exceptional reaction to the May 2024 PPI release. Volatility reached 5.21x the normal quarter-hour level, more than double the 2.08x median across 70 prior PPI prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 8.30x normal, against a typical 2.30x. The move stood out even though the release fell outside the two-week window ahead of a Federal Reserve decision, where the historical median volatility ratio has been 2.18x.
Bitcoin stood at $61,958.80 at the 8:30 AM print. It fell 0.26 percent within fifteen minutes, then finished the hour unchanged. The high-low range widened to 1.44 percent of price in the hour after the release, from 0.57 percent in the hour before. The Bureau of Labor Statistics figure showed producer prices rising 0.5 percent in April, up from 0.1 percent in March, and arrived together with the core PPI reading.
The PPI release details and Bitcoin's reaction produced a volatility ratio well above the levels normally seen when PPI is distant from policy meetings. The episode illustrates that an outsized surprise in the headline number can still generate a large price swing even without proximity to a Federal Reserve decision.
About Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
62,965.53Close
61,733.0724h Change
-1232.46 (-2.00%)24h High
63,118.3624h Low
61,142.7724h Volume
28,912 BTCUS Producer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
14th May, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 61890.22 | 61965.61 | 61877.83 | 61958.81 | 0.11% | 0.14% | 13 BTC |
| During | 61958.80 | 61958.81 | 61151.00 | 61412.00 | -0.89% | 1.30% | 743 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 61995.61 | 61997.89 | 61860.00 | 61958.81 | -0.06% | 0.22% | 86 BTC |
| During | 61958.80 | 61958.81 | 61151.00 | 61568.10 | -0.63% | 1.30% | 1,253 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62078.56 | 62108.00 | 61860.00 | 61958.81 | -0.19% | 0.40% | 193 BTC |
| During | 61958.80 | 61958.81 | 61151.00 | 61559.51 | -0.65% | 1.30% | 1,437 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 62016.41 | 62108.00 | 61860.00 | 61958.81 | -0.09% | 0.40% | 304 BTC |
| During | 61958.80 | 61958.81 | 61151.00 | 61800.75 | -0.26% | 1.30% | 1,746 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 61798.57 | 62108.00 | 61757.57 | 61958.81 | 0.26% | 0.56% | 550 BTC |
| During | 61958.80 | 61958.81 | 61151.00 | 61566.52 | -0.64% | 1.30% | 2,210 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 61870.00 | 62108.00 | 61757.57 | 61958.81 | 0.14% | 0.56% | 770 BTC |
| During | 61958.80 | 62041.40 | 61151.00 | 61985.87 | 0.04% | 1.44% | 2,975 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 61639.99 | 62108.00 | 61582.00 | 61958.81 | 0.51% | 0.85% | 1,457 BTC |
| During | 61958.80 | 62054.77 | 61142.77 | 61988.47 | 0.05% | 1.47% | 5,130 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 61925.20 | 62108.00 | 61520.89 | 61958.81 | 0.05% | 0.95% | 3,007 BTC |
| During | 61958.80 | 62300.00 | 61142.77 | 61509.20 | -0.73% | 1.86% | 9,645 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 61647.79 | 62119.58 | 61520.89 | 61958.81 | 0.50% | 0.96% | 5,641 BTC |
| During | 61958.80 | 62300.00 | 61142.77 | 61257.55 | -1.14% | 1.86% | 12,697 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 62965.53 | 63118.36 | 61404.34 | 61925.21 | -1.68% | 2.72% | 10,451 BTC |
| During | 61925.20 | 62300.00 | 61142.77 | 61509.20 | -0.68% | 1.86% | 12,652 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 62965.53 | 63118.36 | 61404.34 | 61958.81 | -1.62% | 2.72% | 13,458 BTC |
| During | 61958.80 | 62300.00 | 61142.77 | 61733.07 | -0.37% | 1.86% | 15,454 BTC |
