Clometrix News: Forecasts

The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report serves as a cornerstone indicator of economic performance, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced over a quarter. Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, this data influences Federal Reserve policy expectations and overall market sentiment. Stronger-than-expected GDP figures often bolster the US dollar while dampening appetite for risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Conversely, weaker readings can fuel risk-on trades, supporting crypto rallies. With the report set for release today at 8:30 AM ET, Dogecoin traders should brace for potential volatility. The current reference price for $DOGE stands at $0.232. Clometrix has analyzed historical market reactions to similar GDP surprises, focusing on price movements across various timeframes from 1 minute to 4 hours post-release. This forecast outlines two primary scenarios: one where the GDP data exceeds expectations (increase from prior release) and another where it falls short (decrease). Scenario 1: If GDP Data Comes in Higher Than Expected A higher-than-anticipated GDP print could signal robust economic growth, prompting hawkish Fed bets and USD strength. This scenario typically pressures cryptocurrencies, leading to bearish price action in $DOGE. Historical patterns show an initial knee-jerk dip, with averages indicating modest upside potential but pronounced downside risks, especially over longer intervals. By the 4-hour mark, average closes sit around -1.24%, with minimums dipping as low as -5.78%. AverageMinimumMaximumTimeframeHighLowCloseHighLowCloseHighLowClose1m0.2323090.2315830.2317800.2320000.2304470.2305090.2327350.2320000.2325025m0.2326130.2311310.2319180.2320320.2302160.2308130.2333540.2319790.23305610m0.2327750.2309750.2319740.2320320.2301990.2305300.2335290.2318550.23320015m0.2329630.2308130.2317740.2320320.2299680.2303560.2348350.2317650.23429330m0.2330450.2303950.2312360.2320320.2283580.2299190.2357060.2315320.2327321h0.2333630.2295950.2306650.2323260.2255660.2274340.2357060.2315320.2329052h0.2337010.2268140.2291660.2323260.2179950.2184960.2371630.2306070.2368434h0.2342180.2259650.2291190.2323260.2152580.2185850.2384800.2306070.236594Scenario 2: If GDP Comes in Lower Than Expected Should the GDP figure underwhelm, it might highlight economic softness, easing Fed hike pressures and weakening the USD. This often sparks bullish momentum in crypto markets. For $DOGE, past data reveals quick upside captures, with average closes turning positive by the 4-hour window at about 0.50%. Maximums suggest significant rally potential, though volatility remains high. AverageMinimumMaximumTimeframeHighLowCloseHighLowCloseHighLowClose1m0.2325480.2316230.2320330.2320820.2305150.2306600.2337140.2320000.2328985m0.2327960.2313530.2321060.2320820.2298740.2308830.2337140.2320000.23331010m0.2328890.2311410.2318580.2320820.2290150.2292810.2337140.2320000.23329115m0.2329290.2309710.2318050.2320820.2283880.2292010.2337140.2320000.23290730m0.2331100.2305820.2319520.2321770.2275350.2292280.2337140.2320000.2333621h0.2334220.2299470.2314710.2323200.2259630.2289880.2346940.2319380.2335942h0.2339330.2290710.2317290.2323200.2222310.2277220.2360190.2317300.2348874h0.2389230.2282940.2331590.2323200.2222310.2259230.2894540.2314900.260868In conclusion, the US GDP report presents a pivotal moment for $DOGE, with outcomes likely to drive short-term swings. Traders are advised to monitor order flow closely, implement robust risk management strategies such as stop-loss orders, and consider broader market factors including recent developments like the US government's integration of GDP data on public blockchains. As always, past performance is not indicative of future results, and diversification remains key in navigating crypto volatility.Trading Strategy Recommendations Traders eyeing $DOGE around the GDP release should prioritize risk management amid expected swings. In the higher GDP scenario, consider short positions on initial spikes, targeting average lows around -2.60% at 4 hours, with tight stops above recent highs to guard against reversals. Scalpers might exploit 1-15 minute volatility for quick trades, fading early rallies. For the lower GDP outcome, look to buy dips post-release, aiming for average highs near 3% by 4 hours, but monitor for overextensions given maximum upside outliers. Position sizing should remain conservative, perhaps 1-2% of capital per trade, and incorporate stop-losses below key supports like $0.228 in bearish cases or above resistances like $0.235 in bullish ones. Always cross-reference with broader market trends, such as Bitcoin movements, for confirmation. Diversifying across timeframes can help capture both short-term noise and longer-term shifts.Release dates used in this forecast:30/07/2025 8:30am29/05/2025 8:30am27/03/2025 8:30am19/12/2024 8:30am29/08/2024 8:30am30/07/2024 8:30am27/06/2024 8:30am28/03/2024 8:30am29/11/2023 8:30am26/10/2023 8:30am27/07/2023 8:30am29/06/2023 8:30am26/06/2025 8:30am30/04/2025 8:30am30/01/2025 8:30am30/10/2024 8:30am30/05/2024 8:30am26/04/2024 8:30am28/02/2024 8:30am25/01/2024 8:30am21/12/2023 8:30am30/08/2023 8:30am27/04/2023 8:30am30/03/2023 8:30amHow to read the Forecast Summary Table:Min Low: The lowest possible price in the observed interval or minute (on the chart) before price action reverses to the upside.Max Low: The highest low price in the observed interval or minute (on the chart) before price action reverses to the upside.Min High: The lowest high price in the observed interval or minute (on the chart) before price action reverses to the downside.Max High: The highest possible price in the observed interval or minute (on the chart) before price action reverses to the downside.Spot prices are updated once per minute. If using current spot as a reference, chart will refresh once per minute to retrieve last spot price.Disclaimer:The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

25th September 2025

Today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for August 2025, set for 8:30 AM Eastern Time on September 11, 2025, is a critical moment for Ethereum (ETH), currently trading at $4,450. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg and Reuters anticipate a 0.3% month-over-month headline increase, down from July’s 0.9%, signaling potential disinflation. A lower-than-expected print could bolster hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts, lifting risk assets like ETH, which thrives on liquidity and DeFi optimism. A hotter reading, however, might reignite fears of tighter policy, pressuring crypto prices. Drawing from Clometrix’s event-conditioned forecasting engine and historical CPI reactions, this article maps two scenarios— a CPI decrease (softer inflation) and a CPI increase (hotter inflation)— to guide traders through potential volatility in ETH’s price. Understanding the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) The CPI, published monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, measures changes in the prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, acting as a key gauge of inflation. Unlike the Producer Price Index, which tracks wholesale costs, CPI reflects what consumers pay, directly influencing Fed policy expectations. A softer CPI often signals easing inflation, encouraging looser monetary conditions that benefit cryptocurrencies. For instance, in May 2025, a 0.1% MoM CPI print, below the 0.3% expected, sparked a 6% ETH rally to $4,050 within days, per CoinMetrics data. Conversely, hotter CPI data, like June 2024’s 0.4% surprise, led to a 5% ETH dip as rate-hike fears grew. Ethereum, with its heavy DeFi and staking ecosystem, is particularly sensitive to these shifts, as liquidity impacts yield opportunities and institutional flows. The 30-day rolling correlation between ETH and the Nasdaq, at 0.48 in Q3 2025 per TradingView, underscores its tie to macro sentiment. Scenario 1: If CPI Decreases – A Softer Inflation Pathway A CPI print below July’s 0.9% or the 0.3% consensus—say, 0.1% or lower—could fuel bullish sentiment for ETH, signaling disinflation and raising rate-cut odds. Clometrix’s analysis, based on over 40,000 historical event reactions, projects the following price movements relative to the $4,450 reference. The table shows average, minimum, and maximum highs, lows, and closes across timeframes. AverageMinimumMaximumTimeframeHighLowCloseHighLowCloseHighLowClose1m4489.544446.674480.374450.034440.264446.324530.224450.004513.325m4498.354443.014478.814460.464409.434423.554558.574450.004537.1110m4499.464442.214475.054465.054409.434424.964563.884450.004543.2415m4501.364440.594480.284465.054398.574410.434565.974450.004560.2530m4506.714436.764480.084465.054362.994394.054569.864450.004565.011h4511.084434.494474.724465.054362.994382.054590.874450.004555.202h4533.564414.394474.234465.054292.614329.704656.974450.004627.574h4539.914372.944442.394465.054056.794104.454660.434450.004594.74This scenario suggests a positive short-term reaction, with average closes up 0.68% in the first minute and peaking at 0.54% by 2 hours, though 4-hour closes dip slightly to -0.17%, hinting at profit-taking. Maximums show potential rallies to $4,660.43 (+4.73%) within 4 hours, while minimums indicate risks down to $4,056.79 (-8.84%). Historically, soft CPI prints in 2023-2025, like March 2025’s 0.2% MoM, saw ETH gain 4-6% within hours, driven by DeFi yield optimism and ETF inflows, per Glassnode.Scenario 2: If CPI Increases – A Hotter Inflation PathwayA CPI print above 0.3%—say, 0.5% or higher—could spark risk-off moves, as fears of sustained high rates or tighter policy dampen crypto sentiment. Clometrix’s projections, based on historical hotter CPI events, outline the following ranges. AverageMinimumMaximumTimeframeHighLowCloseHighLowCloseHighLowClose1m4471.044419.814444.564450.004333.044367.194526.904450.004502.445m4481.824411.614448.984450.474303.064333.094541.634450.004531.4810m4482.714404.374439.964450.474279.514299.534541.634450.004521.7615m4484.674401.744444.624450.474279.514339.604541.634450.004521.8530m4487.574400.224451.754450.474279.514342.214561.444450.004561.261h4494.304395.784444.244450.474279.514300.204581.854450.004547.082h4520.694381.984464.544450.474226.844272.964635.934450.004630.644h4536.014368.014465.344450.474226.844255.344654.734450.004634.65This pathway shows early pressure, with average closes down -0.12% in the first minute, recovering to +0.34% by 4 hours. Minimums suggest sharp drops to $4,226.84 (-5.01%) within 2 hours, while maximums indicate rebounds to $4,654.73 (+4.60%). Hotter CPI prints, like June 2024’s, triggered similar ETH sell-offs, with $300 million in liquidations reported by Chainalysis.Preparing Your Trading Strategy For a CPI decrease, consider longing ETH on dips near $4,400, targeting average closes like $4,480 within 30 minutes, with stops at $4,362.99 (-1.96%) to guard against minimums. In the increase scenario, short ETH if it breaks below $4,400, aiming for $4,300, but watch for rebounds to $4,600. Volatility straddles on platforms like Deribit can capture swings in either direction, with Clometrix’s playbooks showing ±2-4% median moves post-CPI. Use interactive charts on Clometrix to track real-time correlations with the DXY or Nasdaq, and check X for sentiment shifts. Always set stop-losses at 1-2% to manage risks.Today’s CPI could sway ETH significantly, reflecting its sensitivity to inflation signals. Whether you’re a new trader or a seasoned pro, these forecasts offer a roadmap, but flexibility is key. Explore Clometrix’s Data page for deeper insights or use the free tier to test similar scenarios.Release dates used in this forecast:11/06/2025 8:30pm10/04/2025 8:30pm12/03/2025 8:30pm11/12/2024 9:30pm13/11/2024 9:30pm11/07/2024 8:30pm12/06/2024 8:30pm15/05/2024 8:30pm12/12/2023 9:30pm14/11/2023 9:30pm12/10/2023 8:30pm10/08/2023 8:30pm15/07/2025 8:30pm13/05/2025 8:30pm12/02/2025 9:30pm15/01/2025 9:30pm10/10/2024 8:30pm14/08/2024 8:30pm12/03/2024 8:30pm13/02/2024 9:30pm11/01/2024 9:30pm13/09/2023 8:30pm10/05/2023 8:30pm14/02/2023 9:30pmHow to read the Forecast Chart and Table:Min Low: The lowest possible price in the observed interval or minute (on the chart) before price action reverses to the upside.Max Low: The highest low price in the observed interval or minute (on the chart) before price action reverses to the upside.Min High: The lowest high price in the observed interval or minute (on the chart) before price action reverses to the downside.Max High: The highest possible price in the observed interval or minute (on the chart) before price action reverses to the downside.Spot prices are updated once per minute. If using current spot as a reference, chart will refresh once per minute to retrieve last spot price.Disclaimer:The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

11th September 2025

Traders in the crypto space keep a close eye on economic indicators like the US Producer Price Index, or PPI, because these releases can trigger swift shifts in market sentiment. For Cardano (ADA), currently trading around the reference price of $0.87, today's August 2025 PPI data, set for release at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on September 10, 2025, holds particular weight. Consensus forecasts point to a 0.3% month-over-month increase, a slowdown from July's 0.9%, according to sources like Trading Economics and FXStreet. If the print comes in lower, it could signal easing inflationary pressures, potentially boosting risk assets like ADA by raising hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts. A higher-than-expected figure might stoke inflation fears, leading to pullbacks as investors brace for tighter policy. Drawing from historical reactions, this forecast outlines two pathways— a decrease in PPI (softer inflation) and an increase (hotter inflation)— with detailed projections to help you navigate the volatility. Understanding the US Producer Price Index (PPI) The Producer Price Index tracks changes in the selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, serving as an early gauge of inflationary trends at the wholesale level. Released monthly by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, it covers goods and services across industries, with the headline figure focusing on month-over-month changes. For crypto markets, PPI matters because it influences expectations around monetary policy. A lower PPI reading often correlates with reduced inflation, which can encourage the Fed to ease rates, freeing up liquidity for high-risk assets like cryptocurrencies. Historical data shows that softer PPI prints have preceded rallies in assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum, with spillovers to altcoins like ADA. Conversely, hotter readings can dampen sentiment, as seen in August 2025 when July's 0.9% surge led to quick dips in crypto prices by signaling persistent inflation. Scenario 1: If PPI Decreases – A Softer Inflation Pathway A decrease in PPI, meaning the final figure comes in below the previous month's 0.9% or consensus expectations, could act as a bullish catalyst for ADA. This scenario draws from instances where softer wholesale inflation eased pressure on the Fed, leading to increased investor confidence in risk assets. Based on Clometrix's event-conditioned forecasting engine, which analyzes over 40,000 historical crypto reactions, here's the projected price behavior across timeframes. The table below summarizes average, minimum, and maximum highs, lows, and closes relative to the $0.87 reference, with percentages indicating changes.   Average Minimum Maximum Timeframe High Low Close High Low Close High Low Close 1m 0.8740 0.8693 0.8717 0.8700 0.8643 0.8653 0.8777 0.8700 0.8755 5m 0.8746 0.8670 0.8712 0.8700 0.8550 0.8609 0.8799 0.8700 0.8792 10m 0.8750 0.8656 0.8693 0.8700 0.8475 0.8550 0.8803 0.8699 0.8800 15m 0.8751 0.8652 0.8690 0.8700 0.8475 0.8550 0.8815 0.8696 0.8778 30m 0.8756 0.8642 0.8691 0.8700 0.8475 0.8541 0.8815 0.8696 0.8787 1h 0.8770 0.8638 0.8708 0.8700 0.8475 0.8550 0.8835 0.8696 0.8813 2h 0.8782 0.8579 0.8630 0.8700 0.8380 0.8448 0.8839 0.8692 0.8757 4h 0.8795 0.8513 0.8619 0.8700 0.8113 0.8201 0.8862 0.8692 0.8830 In this pathway, short-term reactions show modest upside, with average closes up 0.19% in the first minute, though longer horizons like 4 hours average a -0.93% close, reflecting potential profit-taking. Minimums highlight downside risks up to -5.73% at 4 hours, while maximums suggest rallies to +1.50%. This aligns with past softer PPI events, where ADA often saw initial pops from improved rate-cut odds before stabilizing. Scenario 2: If PPI Increases – A Hotter Inflation Pathway An increase in PPI, where the print exceeds the prior 0.9% or consensus, might pressure ADA downward as it revives concerns over sticky inflation and delayed rate cuts. Past hotter readings have led to risk-off moves in crypto, with liquidations spiking as traders adjust positions. Clometrix's forecasts, derived from similar historical events, project the following ranges.   Average Minimum Maximum Timeframe High Low Close High Low Close High Low Close 1m 0.8727 0.8676 0.8703 0.8700 0.8620 0.8648 0.8850 0.8700 0.8813 5m 0.8738 0.8667 0.8712 0.8700 0.8620 0.8648 0.8886 0.8700 0.8835 10m 0.8751 0.8663 0.8717 0.8700 0.8620 0.8651 0.8907 0.8700 0.8897 15m 0.8765 0.8663 0.8735 0.8700 0.8620 0.8663 0.9036 0.8700 0.9035 30m 0.8789 0.8657 0.8745 0.8701 0.8597 0.8619 0.9137 0.8700 0.9054 1h 0.8813 0.8639 0.8726 0.8701 0.8557 0.8575 0.9251 0.8700 0.8967 2h 0.8846 0.8570 0.8736 0.8701 0.8302 0.8424 0.9333 0.8700 0.9224 4h 0.8863 0.8550 0.8690 0.8701 0.8160 0.8162 0.9387 0.8700 0.9042 Here, averages indicate early resilience with 0.51% closes at 30 minutes, but volatility ramps up, with 4-hour minimums reaching -6.19%. Maximums offer upside to +3.93%, suggesting possible rebounds if sentiment shifts. This mirrors prior hotter PPI surprises, where initial dips gave way to varied recoveries. Preparing Your Trading Strategy Whether PPI softens or heats up, preparation is key. For the decrease scenario, consider entering longs on dips near $0.86, targeting averages like $0.88 in the first hour, with stops below minimum lows to manage risks around -2.59%. In the increase case, hedge with shorts if ADA breaks $0.85, aiming for rebounds to $0.89 while watching for liquidations. Use volatility tools like straddles for directionless plays, and always incorporate stop-losses at 1-2% to limit exposure. Clometrix's interactive charts can help visualize these correlations, and the free tier offers similar forecasts to refine your approach. Remember to monitor broader sentiment on platforms like X for real-time shifts. Today's PPI release could set the tone for ADA's near-term trajectory, highlighting the tight link between macro data and crypto volatility. By understanding these pathways, traders can position more confidently, but always stay adaptable. Release dates used in this forecast: 12/06/2025 8:30pm 13/02/2025 9:30pm 14/01/2025 9:30pm 14/11/2024 9:30pm 12/09/2024 8:30pm 12/07/2024 8:30pm 14/05/2024 8:30pm 14/03/2024 8:30pm 16/02/2024 9:30pm 13/12/2023 9:30pm 14/09/2023 8:30pm 11/08/2023 8:30pm 16/07/2025 8:30pm 15/05/2025 8:30pm 11/04/2025 8:30pm 13/03/2025 8:30pm 12/12/2024 9:30pm 11/10/2024 8:30pm 13/08/2024 8:30pm 13/06/2024 8:30pm 11/04/2024 8:30pm 12/01/2024 9:30pm 15/11/2023 9:30pm 11/10/2023 8:30pm Min Low: The lowest possible price in the observed interval or minute (on the chart) before price action reverses to the upside. Max Low: The highest low price in the observed interval or minute (on the chart) before price action reverses to the upside. Min High: The lowest high price in the observed interval or minute (on the chart) before price action reverses to the downside. Max High: The highest possible price in the observed interval or minute (on the chart) before price action reverses to the downside. Spot prices are updated once per minute. If using current spot as a reference, chart will refresh once per minute to retrieve last spot price. Disclaimer The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

10th September 2025

Durable Goods Orders rarely dominate crypto headlines the way CPI or FOMC do, but they sit near the heart of the growth–inflation mix. A stronger print hints at resilient capex and factory activity; a weaker one implies softer demand and potentially easier policy down the line. For high-beta assets like XRP, those signals can translate into fast, tradeable swings in the minutes after the release. In traditional markets, upside surprises often nudge Treasury yields and the dollar higher as investors price stronger activity. In crypto, that can mean a brief risk-off wobble that sometimes fades as liquidity reprices and positioning normalizes. Downside surprises, by contrast, tend to pull yields lower and can invite risk-taking—yet the path is rarely linear. Our minute-level data shows that XRP, like other large-cap alts, can whipsaw in the first few minutes before settling into a clearer direction into the +1h to +4h window. Using Clometrix’s event-conditioned forecasting engine, we present two XRP playbooks for this release: an increase in Durable Goods Orders and a decrease. Each scenario quantifies 1-minute intervals from T=0 (release) through +4 hours, with toggle-able min/low/high paths and the average trajectory. Scenario 1: Orders Increase (growth signal beats prior) Scenario 2: Orders Decrease (growth signal softens vs prior) Our framework is designed for traders: consistent reference price at the timestamped release, distribution of highs/lows/closes at +1m, +5m, +10m, +15m, +30m, +1h, +2h, and +4h, and a table that surfaces both tails and central tendencies. Scenario 1: Durable Goods Orders Increase (XRP) An upside surprise typically reinforces the “resilient activity” narrative. Cross-asset, that often pushes front-end rates and the dollar higher as growth gets marked up. For XRP, our history around this event shows two common opening behaviors: a brief knee-jerk dip as macro desks fade risk, or a two-sided whipsaw driven by headline algos before a directional impulse emerges into the +30m to +1h window. The averages and extreme paths below make that pattern explicit—and quantify how far it tends to run. Reference Price: $2.9000   Average Minimum Maximum Timeframe High Low Close High Low Close High Low Close 1m 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.89 2.89 2.91 2.90 2.90 5m 2.90 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.88 2.88 2.91 2.90 2.91 10m 2.90 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.87 2.88 2.91 2.90 2.91 15m 2.90 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.86 2.87 2.91 2.90 2.91 30m 2.91 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.86 2.89 2.91 2.90 2.91 1h 2.91 2.88 2.89 2.90 2.86 2.87 2.92 2.90 2.91 2h 2.92 2.86 2.89 2.90 2.82 2.83 2.98 2.89 2.94 4h 2.92 2.85 2.87 2.90 2.80 2.81 3.01 2.89 2.98 Interpretation: The average close is negative at every horizon and deteriorates from about −0.07% at +1m to roughly −0.91% by +4h, while the average low deepens from around −0.10% at +1m to about −1.71% at +4h. That tells you the typical path after an upside DGO print is a grind-lower, not an immediate moonshot. There is upside potential—the max high reaches about +3.70% by +4h with a max close near +2.78%—but those are tail outcomes, not the central tendency. Practically, XRP tends to fade after the first reaction, with downside tails widening into +1h and +2h. If you see a quick spike without +30m extension (max-high prints early but average close stays soft), treat it as liquidity, not trend. Follow-through risk rises if +1h average close is already below −0.20% and the gap between average and min paths keeps widening into +2h. Scenario 2: Durable Goods Orders Decrease (XRP) A downside surprise points to softer factory demand and a potential easing bias ahead. In macro assets that often shows up as lower yields and a softer dollar, conditions that can support risk sentiment. For XRP, the same noisy opening appears, but the averages lean more constructive if stabilization arrives by +15m to +30m. The table below shows a mild positive drift through +1h and +4h, with a wobble risk mid-window. Reference Price: $2.9000   Average Minimum Maximum Timeframe High Low Close High Low Close High Low Close 1m 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.90 2.89 2.90 2.91 2.90 2.91 5m 2.91 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.87 2.87 2.94 2.90 2.91 10m 2.91 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.86 2.86 2.94 2.90 2.92 15m 2.91 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.85 2.86 2.94 2.90 2.94 30m 2.92 2.89 2.90 2.90 2.85 2.86 2.95 2.90 2.93 1h 2.92 2.88 2.90 2.90 2.85 2.87 2.95 2.90 2.93 2h 2.93 2.87 2.90 2.90 2.81 2.83 2.98 2.90 2.96 4h 2.94 2.86 2.90 2.90 2.80 2.85 3.06 2.90 2.98 Interpretation: The average close tilts positive at +1m (~+0.08%), dips near flat by +5m, then improves into +30m (~+0.11%) and +1h (~+0.12%). There is a mid-window wobble at +2h (average close ~−0.09%), after which the average recovers by +4h (~+0.15%). In other words, the central tendency after a downside DGO print is modestly constructive, provided price stabilizes by +15m to +30m. Tails are still wide—min low can reach −3.62% by +4h and min close as deep as −2.26% at +2h—but upside extremes are larger, with a max high near +5.59% and max close around +2.98% by +4h. The trade translation is straightforward: if early closes cluster above the average path by +15m/+30m and the gap between the average and min paths narrows into +1h, conditions favor constructive drift; if the +2h dip shows up (average close goes negative and min tails expand), patience and smaller size beat chasing. What Is Durable Goods Orders? Durable Goods Orders measure new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for products intended to last three years or more—machinery, vehicles, electronics, aerospace. Because these orders reflect corporate and consumer appetite for big-ticket items, the series is a closely watched real-economy signal of capex and demand. Markets parse both the headline figure and the ex-transportation subset to strip out volatile aircraft swings. Surprises can ripple through yields, the dollar, and risk appetite within minutes of release. Why crypto cares: when orders rise, traders sometimes price a stronger growth impulse and tighter financial conditions—knee-jerk risk-off that can fade as positioning adjusts. When orders fall, easier-policy expectations can support risk, but thin liquidity around the print means the early move is often choppy before a direction emerges. Final Thoughts Durable Goods isn’t the loudest macro horn, yet XRP’s reaction pattern is consistent enough to matter on a trading desk. The edge comes from preparation: mark the release, anchor to a consistent reference price, and let the +1m to +30m behavior tell you whether the move is likely to extend or mean-revert. In the increase scenario, the averages lean lower into +1h/+2h/+4h even though upside tails exist—treat fast spikes skeptically unless they extend beyond +30m. In the decrease scenario, the averages lean modestly higher with a mid-window wobble—look for stabilization by +15m/+30m and narrowing dispersion before leaning with the drift. As always, respect the tails. When max paths light up quickly and the gap to the average path widens, you’re in a higher-octane regime where sizing and timing matter as much as direction. When the paths compress, the trade becomes more about patience and execution than heroics. Release dates used in this forecast: 26/06/2025 8:30pm 24/04/2025 8:30pm 26/03/2025 8:30pm 28/01/2025 9:30pm 25/10/2024 8:30pm 26/08/2024 8:30pm 27/06/2024 8:30pm 24/04/2024 8:30pm 26/03/2024 8:30pm 22/12/2023 9:30pm 26/10/2023 8:30pm 27/09/2023 8:30pm 27/05/2025 8:30pm 27/02/2025 9:30pm 23/12/2024 9:30pm 27/11/2024 9:30pm 26/09/2024 8:30pm 25/07/2024 8:30pm 24/05/2024 8:30pm 27/02/2024 9:30pm 25/01/2024 9:30pm 22/11/2023 9:30pm 24/08/2023 8:30pm 27/06/2023 8:30pm Disclaimer The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

26th August 2025

The FOMC Minutes are one of the most closely watched releases on the Federal Reserve’s calendar. They provide investors with detailed insights into the Fed’s internal debates, policy leanings, and outlook on inflation, employment, and growth. For crypto markets, especially altcoins like Solana, these minutes often spark sharp moves as traders recalibrate expectations around liquidity and risk appetite. Why do they matter for crypto? Because the tone of the Fed’s minutes can shift risk sentiment instantly. A more hawkish set of minutes (pointing to higher-for-longer rates) may pressure Solana and other digital assets. Conversely, a dovish tilt (hinting at potential easing or concern about slowing growth) can boost appetite for risk assets. This makes the FOMC Minutes a high-volatility event worth forecasting in advance. Using Clometrix’s event-conditioned forecasting engine, we’ve analyzed how Solana has historically reacted in the hours following the release of FOMC Minutes. This forecast uses a base reference price of $183.84 for Solana at the time of release. All percentage changes and scenario paths are calculated relative to this level. Scenario: FOMC Minutes Release In this forecast, we model Solana’s potential price movements in the aftermath of the August 21, 2025 release. Because there are no numeric outcomes (like “higher” or “lower” data prints), the single scenario focuses on how Solana typically behaves when the Fed’s minutes are published, capturing liquidity shifts and volatility bursts across multiple timeframes.   Average Minimum Maximum Timeframe High Low Close High Low Close High Low Close 1m 183.99 183.51 183.71 183.84 183.06 183.15 184.46 183.78 184.20 5m 184.25 183.16 183.70 183.92 180.87 181.96 184.71 183.73 184.65 10m 184.54 183.06 183.86 183.92 180.87 181.92 185.49 183.73 185.29 15m 184.62 182.95 184.02 183.92 180.87 182.50 185.79 183.73 185.52 30m 184.94 182.64 183.93 183.92 180.87 181.28 186.03 183.73 185.66 1h 185.08 182.38 183.63 183.92 180.39 181.18 186.40 183.73 186.38 2h 185.60 181.90 184.05 184.08 180.07 180.91 188.88 183.73 188.17 4h 186.36 181.59 184.99 184.19 179.93 181.71 191.38 183.73 190.15 The table above summarizes Solana’s historical performance following FOMC Minutes releases across multiple intraday horizons. Notice the wide spread between minimum and maximum outcomes, highlighting the event’s tendency to spark volatility. While average closes show only modest changes, extremes suggest traders should prepare for both sharp rallies and sudden drawdowns. Educational: Why FOMC Minutes Matter for Solana The FOMC Minutes provide transparency into the Fed’s internal discussions, revealing how policymakers view inflation, growth, and the labor market. For Solana and other altcoins, the connection comes through global liquidity and risk appetite. A hawkish tone can sap demand for speculative assets, while dovish language may act as a catalyst for inflows into crypto markets. They often reshape market expectations for future rate moves. They signal the balance of risks the Fed is focused on. They can drive both immediate volatility and medium-term trends. Final Thoughts The August 21st FOMC Minutes will arrive at a time when crypto markets are already hypersensitive to Fed policy. Solana traders should be prepared for outsized volatility, with potential whipsaws in both directions. Risk management — particularly around leverage and tight stops — is essential. Our models show that while average impacts are contained, maximum historical moves suggest this is not an event to ignore. Disclaimer The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information. Release dates used in this forecast: 10th Jul 2025, 2:00am 29th May 2025, 2:00am 10th Apr 2025, 2:00am 20th Feb 2025, 3:00am 8th Jan 2025, 3:00am 27th Nov 2024, 3:00am 10th Oct 2024, 2:00am 22nd Aug 2024, 2:00am 4th Jul 2024, 2:00am 23rd May 2024, 2:00am 11th Apr 2024, 2:00am 22nd Feb 2024, 3:00am Want to create your own crypto forecasts? Sign up for free at Clometrix and run event-conditioned scenarios on your favorite coins.

20th August 2025

The weekly U.S. Initial Jobless Claims report may look like just another labor statistic, but in reality, it’s one of the most consistent and closely watched measures of economic health. For traders in crypto, it has become a surprisingly potent volatility trigger. Why? Because jobless claims are a real-time window into the strength of the labor market — and by extension, the Federal Reserve’s stance on monetary policy. A rising number suggests labor weakness, raising the odds of rate cuts and looser liquidity. A falling number signals labor strength, which may keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Both outcomes can swing sentiment sharply across risk assets, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. Using Clometrix’s event-conditioned forecasting engine, we’ve broken down how crypto markets have historically reacted to two scenarios: This forecast uses a base reference price of $113,000 for Bitcoin at the time of release. All percentage changes and scenario paths are calculated relative to this level. Initial Claims Increase (a weaker labor market than the previous week) Initial Claims Decrease (a stronger labor market than the previous week) Our models track minute-level data for BTC and other major cryptocurrencies in the four-hour window following the release, providing traders with distributions of highs, lows, closes, and average paths. Scenario 1: Initial Claims Increase When Initial Claims increase from the prior week, markets typically interpret this as a sign of a weakening labor market. For crypto, that often translates into short-term volatility followed by medium-term upside, as traders price in the possibility of Fed easing or looser conditions ahead. Below is the forecast summary table for this scenario, covering 1-minute through 4-hour intervals after release:   Average Minimum Maximum Timeframe High Low Close High Low Close High Low Close 1m 113296.63 112938.30 113146.45 113025.65 112700.66 112785.07 114052.48 113000.00 113766.71 5m 113355.72 112874.57 113103.73 113030.06 112393.53 112843.72 114052.48 113000.00 113654.61 10m 113406.91 112838.18 113158.65 113030.06 112393.53 112503.14 114423.23 113000.00 113828.29 15m 113462.40 112781.35 113203.40 113030.06 112247.99 112371.95 114423.23 113000.00 114054.40 30m 113504.54 112696.26 113139.33 113030.06 111816.10 111936.78 114423.23 113000.00 114316.56 1h 113711.22 112620.77 113244.31 113030.06 111816.10 112248.89 115658.32 112956.72 115279.78 2h 114169.10 112216.68 113335.84 113039.55 111173.92 111866.16 118012.79 112956.72 117987.48 4h 114468.77 112086.06 113432.22 113039.55 110683.05 111519.93 118838.48 112956.72 117802.73 The data shows that in the first 15–30 minutes, downside tails can be sharp (minimum lows falling as much as −1% within half an hour), but the average close tends to recover into positive territory by the one-hour mark. At the extreme, maximum highs within two to four hours after release have historically reached gains of +4–5%. In other words: the path is noisy, but the balance of probabilities favors upside if claims increase. Scenario 2: Initial Claims Decrease When Initial Claims decline, it reflects labor strength — which in turn suggests the Fed has less incentive to cut rates. Historically, this tends to be less bullish for crypto, and sometimes mildly bearish, as tighter conditions are priced in. Forecast summary table for this scenario:   Average Minimum Maximum Timeframe High Low Close High Low Close High Low Close 1m 113104.53 112944.74 112995.93 113000.00 112695.92 112695.92 113966.15 113000.00 113198.20 5m 113169.95 112879.43 113071.19 113000.00 112578.85 112780.44 113966.15 113000.00 113614.61 10m 113205.55 112866.55 113000.45 113000.00 112578.85 112665.41 113966.15 113000.00 113291.31 15m 113213.12 112855.93 113014.92 113000.00 112535.23 112556.81 113966.15 113000.00 113383.30 30m 113222.61 112800.55 112983.16 113000.00 112393.98 112490.26 113966.15 113000.00 113527.82 1h 113265.78 112704.50 112889.15 113000.00 112393.98 112500.09 114135.20 112981.47 113315.84 2h 113534.49 112246.97 112681.11 113000.00 111602.76 111811.47 114660.31 112821.12 114198.93 4h 113779.70 111933.85 112700.10 113005.76 110809.38 111028.49 115580.92 112715.35 114364.36 Here, the average closes skew negative by the 1–4 hour horizons, with downside extending to −1% or more in minimum cases. Upside still exists — particularly in strong risk-on periods — but historically the market’s median path tilts weaker when jobless claims decline. What Are Initial Jobless Claims? Initial Jobless Claims are a weekly measure of how many people filed for unemployment benefits for the first time. It’s one of the most timely indicators of labor market health in the United States. An increase in claims means more people are losing jobs → a weaker labor market → higher probability of monetary easing → often interpreted as bullish for risk assets like crypto. A decrease in claims means fewer layoffs and stronger labor → the Fed may see less reason to cut rates → often interpreted as bearish or at least neutral for crypto. Unlike lagging indicators such as GDP, Initial Claims give traders near real-time insight into the economy’s momentum, which explains why the release consistently moves markets. Final Thoughts Initial Claims may not sound like the most glamorous data point, but week after week it shapes market expectations about the Fed and liquidity conditions. For crypto traders, that makes it a recurring volatility event worth preparing for. Our analysis shows two very different playbooks: If claims increase: short-term turbulence but historically a tilt toward upside in the hours that follow. If claims decrease: often weaker closes and higher probability of downside pressure. By studying these patterns in advance — and using interactive charts to explore minute-by-minute ranges — traders can avoid being blindsided and instead approach Initial Claims with structured, data-driven scenarios. Disclaimer The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information. Release dates used in this forecast: Intial Claims Increase from Previous: [25th Jul 2025], [18th Jul 2025], [11th Jul 2025], [4th Jul 2025], [27th Jun 2025], [20th Jun 2025], [23rd May 2025], [16th May 2025], [9th May 2025], [18th Apr 2025], [4th Apr 2025], [14th Mar 2025] Initial Claims Decrease from Previous: [25th Jul 2025], [18th Jul 2025], [11th Jul 2025], [4th Jul 2025], [27th Jun 2025], [20th Jun 2025], [23rd May 2025], [16th May 2025], [9th May 2025], [18th Apr 2025], [4th Apr 2025], [14th Mar 2025] Want to see how your favorite coins might react to upcoming events? With Clometrix, you can create your own forecasts across BTC, ETH, and 25+ altcoins. Sign up for free and explore event-driven scenarios before the market moves.

19th August 2025