Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.19x, against 2.08x for a typical PPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.28x, against a typical 2.30x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $101,254.06 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.22% lower, and an hour later 0.16% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.99% of its price, against 0.86% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 12 December 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Producer Price Index came in at 0.1% for November 2024, against 0.3% in October 2024. Producer prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Core Producer Price Index, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.18x across 29, against 2.05x across 41. This one came out 6 days before the Federal Reserve's 18 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 3.19x compares with 2.18x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.08x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the November Producer Price Index release, with volatility expanding 3.19 times and volume 4.28 times their normal levels in the quarter hour after the print. This outpaced the medians of 2.08x for volatility and 2.30x for volume seen across PPI releases since 2021. The price itself showed only modest directional change, falling 0.22 percent in the first fifteen minutes before recovering to a 0.16 percent gain after an hour, while the hourly range widened to 0.99 percent from 0.86 percent beforehand.
The data arrived alongside the core PPI reading, initial jobless claims and continued claims, six days ahead of the Federal Reserve's December rate decision. Releases in the two weeks before policy meetings have historically produced a median volatility ratio of 2.18x for Bitcoin. The current episode surpassed that benchmark, indicating that the combined information flow generated more movement than the pre-decision window alone would predict.
Across seventy PPI prints since 2021 the median volatility ratio stands at 2.08x. This instance therefore stands out as one where the market response exceeded both the event's overall record and the subset tied to upcoming policy meetings.
About Producer Price Index
The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the average change over time in the prices domestic producers receive for their output. It is a measure of inflation at the wholesale level that is compiled from thousands of indexes measuring producer prices by industry and product category. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
100,786.00Close
99,579.2324h Change
-1206.77 (-1.21%)24h High
102,540.0024h Low
99,311.6424h Volume
28,633 BTCUS Producer Price Index
Bureau of Labor Statistics
12th December, 2024, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 101188.00 | 101254.07 | 101187.99 | 101254.06 | 0.07% | 0.07% | 9 BTC |
| During | 101254.06 | 101541.83 | 101241.87 | 101412.04 | 0.16% | 0.30% | 100 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 101210.52 | 101280.95 | 101168.00 | 101254.06 | 0.04% | 0.11% | 47 BTC |
| During | 101254.06 | 101541.83 | 100845.48 | 101226.18 | -0.03% | 0.69% | 407 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 101311.24 | 101545.78 | 101168.00 | 101254.06 | -0.06% | 0.37% | 244 BTC |
| During | 101254.06 | 101541.83 | 100540.74 | 100814.19 | -0.44% | 0.99% | 710 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 100861.11 | 101545.78 | 100848.99 | 101254.06 | 0.39% | 0.69% | 425 BTC |
| During | 101254.06 | 101541.83 | 100540.74 | 101028.64 | -0.22% | 0.99% | 893 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 100828.00 | 101545.78 | 100741.25 | 101254.06 | 0.42% | 0.79% | 594 BTC |
| During | 101254.06 | 101541.83 | 100540.74 | 100911.99 | -0.34% | 0.99% | 1,216 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 100712.78 | 101545.78 | 100680.00 | 101254.06 | 0.53% | 0.85% | 1,059 BTC |
| During | 101254.06 | 101541.83 | 100540.74 | 101411.77 | 0.16% | 0.99% | 1,759 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 100453.19 | 101545.78 | 100234.82 | 101254.06 | 0.79% | 1.29% | 1,652 BTC |
| During | 101254.06 | 101754.17 | 100540.74 | 101499.99 | 0.24% | 1.19% | 5,089 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 100995.43 | 101545.78 | 100178.32 | 101254.06 | 0.26% | 1.35% | 2,978 BTC |
| During | 101254.06 | 102540.00 | 100540.74 | 101532.17 | 0.27% | 1.95% | 9,912 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 100780.00 | 101545.78 | 100178.32 | 101254.06 | 0.47% | 1.35% | 4,214 BTC |
| During | 101254.06 | 102540.00 | 99832.00 | 99932.01 | -1.32% | 2.64% | 12,322 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 100786.00 | 101829.00 | 100331.61 | 100995.43 | 0.21% | 1.47% | 7,041 BTC |
| During | 100995.43 | 102540.00 | 100178.32 | 101532.17 | 0.53% | 2.30% | 12,890 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 100786.00 | 101829.00 | 100178.32 | 101254.06 | 0.46% | 1.62% | 10,019 BTC |
| During | 101254.06 | 102540.00 | 99311.64 | 99579.23 | -1.68% | 3.15% | 18,615 BTC |
