Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 4.13x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 7.58x, against a typical 2.11x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,638.48 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.25% higher, and an hour later 3.04% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.38% of its price, against 0.99% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 August 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.0% for July 2022, against 0.9% in June 2022. Prices were flat.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.13x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.79x.
What it means
Ethereum showed an exceptional reaction to the August 2022 PCE release. Volatility reached 4.13x its normal level for that quarter hour of the day, more than double the 1.80x median recorded across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume rose 7.58x against the usual 2.15x. The price stood at $1,638.48 at the 8:30 AM release and climbed 1.25 percent within fifteen minutes and 3.04 percent within the hour, while the hourly high-low range widened to 4.38 percent from 0.99 percent beforehand.
The flat 0.0 percent PCE reading for July arrived together with the Personal Income and Core PCE figures, so the measured move reflects the joint release. This event fell 25 days before the September FOMC decision and therefore outside the two-week window that Clometrix tracks separately. The volatility ratio exceeded the 1.77x median seen in non-Fed-window PCE releases since 2021, indicating that the surprise itself, rather than proximity to policy, aligned with the stronger response.
Traders reviewing the record will note that PCE prints have produced a consistent 1.80x median volatility ratio for Ethereum across the full sample and that the August outcome demonstrates that an outsized move can still occur well away from FOMC dates when the data deviate sharply from the prior month.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 2.33 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 4.13x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 1672.37 | 1634.71 | 1665.63 | 1.63% | 2.25% | 0.24% | 15,673 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 1672.37 | 1634.71 | 1665.00 | 1.59% | 2.25% | 0.49% | 38,927 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 1672.37 | 1634.71 | 1660.16 | 1.31% | 2.25% | 0.49% | 45,195 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 1672.37 | 1634.71 | 1658.89 | 1.23% | 2.25% | 0.50% | 50,480 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 1682.19 | 1634.71 | 1680.42 | 2.50% | 2.82% | 0.89% | 68,668 ETH |
| 1 hour | 1706.45 | 1634.71 | 1688.29 | 2.95% | 4.20% | 0.98% | 112,973 ETH |
| 2 hours | 1706.45 | 1634.71 | 1660.49 | 1.33% | 4.20% | 2.26% | 259,317 ETH |
| 4 hours | 1706.45 | 1562.71 | 1569.37 | -4.40% | 8.42% | 2.81% | 498,097 ETH |
| 6 hours | 1706.45 | 1538.23 | 1542.42 | -6.23% | 9.86% | 2.81% | 609,664 ETH |
| 8 hours | 1706.45 | 1562.71 | 1569.37 | -5.53% | 8.42% | 2.95% | 618,583 ETH |
| 12 hours | 1706.45 | 1486.85 | 1509.16 | -8.57% | 12.87% | 4.20% | 856,780 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 5.57x | 2.03x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 4.13x | 1.77x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 2.17x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 3.77x | 1.75x | Exceptional |
| Solana | 3.41x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 3.37x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 3.31x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 3.01x | 1.90x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 3.59x | 1.62x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.31x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 3.53x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
| Avalanche | 3.40x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 3.35x | 1.64x | Exceptional |
| Shiba Inu | 3.08x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 3.77x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 4.07x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| Aave | 3.86x | 1.58x | Exceptional |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.95x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Internet Computer | 2.38x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.92x | 1.60x | Exceptional |
| Filecoin | 3.08x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 4.13x a lot?
For a PCE release it is exceptional: the usual is 1.77x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.