Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 4.68x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 12.11x, against a typical 2.11x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,340.44 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.8% lower, and an hour later 1.42% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.07% of its price, against 1.3% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 September 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for August 2022, against 0.0% in July 2022. Prices are rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.68x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.79x.
What it means
Ethereum's reaction to the 30 September 2022 PCE release stood out sharply from the event's established pattern. Volatility reached 4.68x the level seen in an ordinary quarter hour that day, more than double the 1.80x median recorded across 69 PCE releases since 2021. Volume expanded even more dramatically to 12.11x, against a typical 2.15x. Clometrix therefore classifies the move as exceptional.
The price action confirmed the scale of the response. Ethereum stood at $1,340.44 at the 8:30 AM release. It fell 0.8 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.42 percent within the hour. The high-to-low range over that hour reached 2.07 percent of spot, compared with 1.3 percent in the preceding hour. The figures arrived together with Personal Income and Core PCE, so the measured reaction reflects the combined release.
Timing relative to Federal Reserve decisions does not explain the size of the move. PCE releases inside the two-week window before a policy meeting have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum, nearly identical to the 1.77x median outside that window. This particular release fell 32 days before the November decision, yet delivered 4.68x volatility, well above the 1.77x benchmark for comparable non-Fed-window episodes.
Traders reviewing the record therefore see that an outsized reaction can occur even when the usual timing catalyst is absent. The data show what coincided with the release rather than what produced it, and they offer no basis for projecting the magnitude of the next PCE print.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 2.64 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 4.68x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 1341.16 | 1313.35 | 1322.10 | -1.39% | 2.07% | 0.36% | 19,715 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 1341.16 | 1313.35 | 1329.02 | -0.86% | 2.07% | 0.86% | 45,191 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 1341.16 | 1313.35 | 1322.91 | -1.33% | 2.07% | 0.96% | 53,587 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 1341.16 | 1313.35 | 1329.73 | -0.81% | 2.07% | 0.96% | 63,308 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 1341.16 | 1313.35 | 1327.48 | -0.98% | 2.07% | 1.18% | 71,806 ETH |
| 1 hour | 1341.16 | 1313.35 | 1321.37 | -1.44% | 2.07% | 1.30% | 85,218 ETH |
| 2 hours | 1342.82 | 1313.35 | 1340.55 | 0.01% | 2.19% | 1.39% | 150,184 ETH |
| 4 hours | 1373.19 | 1313.35 | 1358.01 | 1.29% | 4.36% | 1.73% | 280,880 ETH |
| 6 hours | 1373.19 | 1313.35 | 1350.97 | 0.78% | 4.36% | 1.73% | 328,293 ETH |
| 8 hours | 1373.19 | 1313.35 | 1358.01 | 1.39% | 4.36% | 2.38% | 378,552 ETH |
| 12 hours | 1373.19 | 1313.35 | 1332.82 | -0.57% | 4.36% | 2.38% | 457,479 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 4.07x | 2.03x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 4.68x | 1.77x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 3.95x | 1.81x | Exceptional |
| BNB | 3.34x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Solana | 5.06x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 4.08x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 5.31x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 4.13x | 1.90x | Exceptional |
| Chainlink | 2.82x | 1.62x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 4.62x | 1.69x | Exceptional |
| Hedera | 2.35x | 1.51x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 4.75x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 3.09x | 1.64x | Strong |
| Shiba Inu | 3.25x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 3.23x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 3.60x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| Aave | 3.79x | 1.58x | Exceptional |
| NEAR Protocol | 7.00x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Internet Computer | 2.72x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 4.46x | 1.60x | Exceptional |
| Filecoin | 4.43x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 4.68x a lot?
For a PCE release it is exceptional: the usual is 1.77x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.