Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 5.57x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.89x, against a typical 2.52x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $21,295.37 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.99% higher, and an hour later 2.26% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.97% of its price, against 0.9% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 August 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.0% for July 2022, against 0.9% in June 2022. Prices were flat.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 5.57x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin recorded a volatility ratio of 5.57x in the quarter hour after the PCE release, more than double the 2.09x median across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded 5.89x against a typical 2.55x. The price stood at $21,295.37 at the 8:30 AM release and rose 0.99 percent within fifteen minutes, reaching 2.26 percent higher after one hour, with a 2.97 percent high-low range against 0.9 percent beforehand.
The flat 0.0 percent PCE print for July arrived alongside Personal Income and Core PCE data. This release fell outside the two-week window before a Federal Reserve decision, where PCE has historically produced a 2.13x median volatility ratio. Yet the observed 5.57x exceeded even the 1.81x median for non-proximate releases, marking the move as larger than timing alone explains.
Traders watching future PCE prints may note that reactions of this magnitude remain possible even without proximity to policy meetings, though the record shows only the coincidence of larger price ranges with certain releases and does not establish causation.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 2.75 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 5.57x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 21692.09 | 21255.00 | 21600.86 | 1.41% | 2.01% | 0.17% | 1,863 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 21692.09 | 21255.00 | 21561.50 | 1.23% | 2.01% | 0.43% | 5,805 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 21692.09 | 21255.00 | 21543.47 | 1.15% | 2.01% | 0.43% | 8,398 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 21692.09 | 21255.00 | 21506.01 | 0.98% | 2.01% | 0.46% | 10,116 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 21692.09 | 21255.00 | 21639.79 | 1.59% | 2.01% | 0.66% | 14,608 BTC |
| 1 hour | 21886.77 | 21255.00 | 21776.30 | 2.21% | 2.89% | 0.90% | 27,610 BTC |
| 2 hours | 21886.77 | 21255.00 | 21450.90 | 0.73% | 2.89% | 1.49% | 59,550 BTC |
| 4 hours | 21886.77 | 20529.74 | 20584.44 | -3.45% | 6.20% | 1.69% | 119,510 BTC |
| 6 hours | 21886.77 | 20529.74 | 20583.99 | -3.46% | 6.20% | 1.69% | 142,668 BTC |
| 8 hours | 21886.77 | 20529.74 | 20584.44 | -4.05% | 6.20% | 1.33% | 151,306 BTC |
| 12 hours | 21886.77 | 20107.90 | 20275.68 | -5.03% | 8.13% | 2.35% | 197,121 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 5.57x | 2.03x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 4.13x | 1.77x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 2.17x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 3.77x | 1.75x | Exceptional |
| Solana | 3.41x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 3.37x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 3.31x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 3.01x | 1.90x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 3.59x | 1.62x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.31x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 3.53x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
| Avalanche | 3.40x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 3.35x | 1.64x | Exceptional |
| Shiba Inu | 3.08x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 3.77x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 4.07x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| Aave | 3.86x | 1.58x | Exceptional |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.95x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Internet Computer | 2.38x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.92x | 1.60x | Exceptional |
| Filecoin | 3.08x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 5.57x a lot?
For a PCE release it is exceptional: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.