BTC Volatility Analysis for Durable Orders, 23rd December 2020

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Census on 23 December 2020 at 8:30 AM EST. Durable Goods Orders came in at 0.3% for November 2020, against 2.5% in October 2020. Durable goods orders are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Personal Income and Outlays, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.14x, against 1.45x for a typical Durable Orders release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.73x, against a typical 1.59x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $23,874.21 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.36% lower, and an hour later 1.12% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.81% of its price, against 3.54% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Durable Orders releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.48x across 19, against 1.43x across 49. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.14x compares with 1.43x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About Durable Goods Orders

The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Durable Goods Orders report every month. Durable goods orders reflect new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting manufactured goods (durable goods) in the near term or future. The change in the total value of new orders is measured and shared with the public in two releases per month: the advance report on durable goods and the manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders.