BTC Volatility Analysis for CPI, 10th March 2021

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 10 March 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Consumer Price Index came in at 0.3% for February 2021, against 0.2% in January 2021. Consumer prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Core Consumer Price Index and Core Inflation Rate, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $55,573.93 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.83% higher, and an hour later 0.7% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.44% of its price, against 1.26% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.53x, against 4.28x for a typical CPI release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.56x, against a typical 6.92x. That is a muted reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, CPI releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 4.75x across 28, against 3.99x across 42. This one came out 7 days before the Federal Reserve's 17 March rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.53x compares with 4.75x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 CPI releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.28x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered only modest price action after the February CPI print of 0.3 percent. The cryptocurrency traded at $55,573.93 at the 8:30 AM release. It advanced 0.83 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.7 percent after one hour. The high-to-low range expanded to 1.44 percent of the prevailing price, compared with 1.26 percent in the preceding hour.

Clometrix measured Bitcoin's volatility ratio at 1.53x, far below the 4.28x median recorded across seventy CPI releases since 2021. Volume expanded 2.56x against the event's typical 6.92x. The release arrived seven days before the Federal Reserve's 17 March rate decision, a period that has produced a 4.75x median volatility ratio in twenty-eight prior instances. The observed reaction therefore remained below the level its proximity to the policy meeting would normally indicate.

Clometrix classifies the outcome as muted for CPI. The simultaneous arrival of core CPI and core inflation readings may have contributed to the contained response. Traders monitoring the next CPI release can observe that proximity to a Federal Reserve decision has not always translated into larger moves when the headline figure stays close to the prior reading.

About Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the monthly change in prices paid by U.S. consumers. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) calculates the CPI as a weighted average of prices for a basket of goods and services representative of aggregate U.S. consumer spending. The CPI is one of the most popular measures of inflation and deflation. The index is published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

BTC-USDT

Bitcoin

Open

55,389.25

55,378.12

24h Change

-11.13 (-0.02%)

24h High

57,387.69

24h Low

53,005.00

24h Volume

83,963 BTC

US Consumer Price Index

Bureau of Labor Statistics

10th March, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	55581.75	55638.76	55573.94	55577.73	-0.01%	0.12%	35 BTC
During	55573.93	55728.00	55573.93	55726.98	0.27%	0.28%	66 BTC

5 Minutes
Before	55615.88	55664.43	55557.02	55577.73	-0.07%	0.19%	165 BTC
During	55573.93	55999.84	55573.93	55949.87	0.67%	0.76%	692 BTC

10 Minutes
Before	55555.31	55726.87	55527.15	55577.73	0.04%	0.36%	416 BTC
During	55573.93	56178.62	55573.93	55886.63	0.56%	1.08%	1,550 BTC

15 Minutes
Before	55640.59	55726.87	55436.61	55577.73	-0.11%	0.52%	763 BTC
During	55573.93	56178.62	55573.93	56036.37	0.83%	1.08%	1,933 BTC

30 Minutes
Before	55219.99	55726.87	55139.01	55577.73	0.64%	1.05%	1,749 BTC
During	55573.93	56333.00	55573.93	56262.56	1.22%	1.35%	3,273 BTC

1 Hour
Before	55026.18	55726.87	55024.77	55577.73	0.99%	1.26%	3,162 BTC
During	55573.93	56372.04	55573.93	55962.06	0.69%	1.42%	5,281 BTC

2 Hours
Before	54777.46	55726.87	54637.92	55577.73	1.44%	1.95%	5,579 BTC
During	55573.93	56489.66	55573.93	56214.05	1.14%	1.62%	9,420 BTC

4 Hours
Before	54797.99	55726.87	54512.00	55577.73	1.40%	2.18%	11,767 BTC
During	55573.93	57100.00	55573.93	56920.01	2.36%	2.67%	18,115 BTC

6 Hours
Before	54175.89	55726.87	54032.38	55577.73	2.52%	3.04%	17,017 BTC
During	55573.93	57387.69	55573.93	57030.09	2.55%	3.16%	25,845 BTC

8 Hours
Before	55389.25	55460.35	53005.00	54798.00	-1.08%	4.43%	25,077 BTC
During	54797.99	57100.00	54512.00	56920.01	3.73%	4.53%	29,882 BTC

12 Hours
Before	55389.25	55726.87	53005.00	55577.73	0.34%	4.88%	36,844 BTC
During	55573.93	57387.69	55170.22	55378.12	-0.35%	3.86%	47,118 BTC