The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 May 2025 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.2% for April 2025, against 0.0% in March 2025. Prices are rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $105,551.04 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.35% higher, and an hour later 0.08% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.6% of its price, against 0.78% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.56x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.48x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.56x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the May 30 PCE release, posting a volatility ratio of 1.56x against the 2.09x median recorded across 69 PCE prints since 2021. The 0.6 percent high-to-low range in the hour after the print was narrower than the 0.78 percent range seen in the prior hour, while the volume ratio reached only 1.48x against a typical 2.55x. These outcomes align with Clometrix classification of the move as ordinary for the event.
The release printed 0.2 percent for April, up from 0.0 percent in March, and arrived together with the 0.8 percent Personal Income figure and the 0.2 percent Core PCE reading. Its timing, 18 days before the June 18 FOMC decision, placed it outside the two-week pre-meeting window in which PCE has produced a higher median volatility ratio of 2.13x. The observed 1.56x therefore fell below the 1.81x median recorded for PCE releases at other times.
Traders reviewing the record for this event will note that proximity to a Federal Reserve decision has coincided with larger Bitcoin moves on PCE days, yet the data show no consistent pattern outside that window. The subdued ratios on May 30 simply extended that distinction without establishing any new baseline for the June 11 CPI or later releases.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.77 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.56x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 105800.00 | 105508.78 | 105751.32 | 0.19% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 48 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 105850.00 | 105508.78 | 105800.00 | 0.24% | 0.32% | 0.19% | 146 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 105850.00 | 105508.78 | 105739.58 | 0.18% | 0.32% | 0.28% | 207 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 105978.51 | 105508.78 | 105920.30 | 0.35% | 0.44% | 0.28% | 302 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 106000.00 | 105508.78 | 105684.96 | 0.13% | 0.46% | 0.78% | 519 BTC |
| 1 hour | 106000.00 | 105366.14 | 105633.70 | 0.08% | 0.60% | 0.78% | 958 BTC |
| 2 hours | 106000.00 | 105047.61 | 105205.00 | -0.33% | 0.90% | 0.78% | 2,186 BTC |
| 4 hours | 106000.00 | 104655.00 | 104685.85 | -0.83% | 1.27% | 1.30% | 4,005 BTC |
| 6 hours | 106000.00 | 103706.71 | 104723.47 | -0.79% | 2.16% | 1.34% | 7,732 BTC |
| 8 hours | 106000.00 | 104606.01 | 104685.85 | -0.52% | 1.32% | 1.61% | 7,544 BTC |
| 12 hours | 106000.00 | 103550.00 | 103796.94 | -1.69% | 2.31% | 1.61% | 11,611 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.56x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 1.89x | 1.77x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 1.00x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.25x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.17x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.31x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.43x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.36x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.60x | 1.62x | Ordinary |
| Sui | 1.33x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.93x | 1.69x | Ordinary |
| Hedera | 1.17x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.52x | 1.55x | Ordinary |
| Litecoin | 1.39x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | 1.49x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.46x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.14x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 2.08x | 1.58x | Strong |
| Bittensor | 0.84x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.99x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.47x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.28x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.27x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.51x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.56x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.