Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.84x, against 2.09x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 10.93x, against a typical 2.55x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $93,032.58 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.44% higher, and an hour later 0.72% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.57% of its price, against 1.75% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 April 2025 at 10:00 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.0% for March 2025, against 0.4% in February 2025. Prices were flat.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 51. This one came out 7 days before the Federal Reserve's 7 May rate decision. Its own ratio of 3.84x compares with 2.13x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.09x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the PCE release. Volatility reached 3.84 times normal levels, well above the 2.09 times median recorded across 69 prior PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 10.93 times baseline against the typical 2.55 times.
Price movement stayed modest even as activity rose. Bitcoin traded at $93,032.58 at publication and rose 0.44 percent fifteen minutes later before finishing 0.72 percent higher after one hour. The high-to-low range in that hour measured 1.57 percent of price, narrower than the 1.75 percent span seen beforehand.
The release fell seven days before the Federal Reserve decision, placing it inside the window when PCE prints have historically produced a 2.13 times median volatility ratio. The observed 3.84 times ratio exceeded that pre-decision benchmark, indicating the move surpassed what timing alone would explain. Traders watching the next PCE release may note that elevated volume accompanied limited directional follow-through in this instance.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.09x. This one was 1.84 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.09x. Thick line: this release, 3.84x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 93119.65 | 92910.00 | 93119.64 | 0.09% | 0.23% | 0.07% | 277 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 93600.65 | 92910.00 | 93363.54 | 0.35% | 0.74% | 0.41% | 650 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 93600.65 | 92910.00 | 93365.30 | 0.36% | 0.74% | 0.81% | 1,002 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 93600.65 | 92910.00 | 93443.61 | 0.44% | 0.74% | 0.97% | 1,263 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 94183.75 | 92910.00 | 94123.98 | 1.16% | 1.35% | 1.62% | 1,913 BTC |
| 1 hour | 94367.70 | 92910.00 | 93705.04 | 0.72% | 1.54% | 1.72% | 3,159 BTC |
| 2 hours | 94367.70 | 92910.00 | 94004.63 | 1.03% | 1.54% | 2.30% | 3,881 BTC |
| 4 hours | 94367.70 | 92910.00 | 94100.39 | 1.13% | 1.54% | 2.31% | 4,974 BTC |
| 6 hours | 94500.00 | 92910.00 | 94152.01 | 1.19% | 1.68% | 2.31% | 5,916 BTC |
| 8 hours | 95228.45 | 92910.00 | 94100.39 | -0.92% | 2.43% | 0.76% | 10,287 BTC |
| 12 hours | 94784.10 | 92910.00 | 94636.51 | 1.69% | 1.98% | 2.31% | 8,839 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3.84x | 2.06x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 3.85x | 1.79x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 4.19x | 1.70x | Exceptional |
| BNB | 2.84x | 1.78x | Strong |
| Solana | 2.25x | 1.58x | Strong |
| Dogecoin | 3.58x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 2.52x | 1.42x | Strong |
| Cardano | 3.62x | 1.88x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 3.15x | 1.61x | Strong |
| Sui | 3.61x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.50x | 1.67x | Exceptional |
| Hedera | 4.20x | 1.48x | Exceptional |
| Avalanche | 3.31x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 4.21x | 1.64x | Exceptional |
| Gram | 5.08x | 1.29x | Exceptional |
| Shiba Inu | 3.45x | 1.74x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 3.15x | 1.48x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 2.54x | 1.49x | Strong |
| Aave | 3.11x | 1.57x | Strong |
| Bittensor | 4.77x | 1.68x | Exceptional |
| NEAR Protocol | 4.13x | 1.37x | Exceptional |
| Aptos | 2.81x | 1.70x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 3.09x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 4.19x | 1.56x | Exceptional |
| Filecoin | 4.07x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 3.84x a lot?
For a PCE release it is strong: the usual is 2.09x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.