Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.07x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.82x, against a typical 2.52x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $19,470.05 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.71% lower, and an hour later 1.11% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.65% of its price, against 0.74% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 September 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for August 2022, against 0.0% in July 2022. Prices are rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.07x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the 30 September 2022 PCE release, with a volatility ratio of 4.07x that exceeded the 2.09x median recorded across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded 3.82x against the 2.55x typical level, confirming the move stood out relative to the event's own history. The release printed 0.3 percent month-over-month for August, up from 0.0 percent in July, and arrived alongside Personal Income and Core PCE figures.
Price action showed Bitcoin opening at $19,470.05 and falling 0.71 percent within fifteen minutes and 1.11 percent within one hour. The high-to-low range widened to 1.65 percent in the hour after the data versus 0.74 percent beforehand. This magnitude aligned with Clometrix's classification of the reaction as strong for PCE.
The outcome occurred 32 days before the next Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced a 2.13x median volatility ratio for Bitcoin. Even against the 1.81x median observed for non-Fed-window PCE releases, the 4.07x reading exceeded what timing alone would indicate.
Traders reviewing the record may note that PCE releases have shown variable impact on Bitcoin depending on surrounding conditions, with this instance illustrating that sizable price movement can occur even when the data arrives well clear of policy meetings.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 2.01 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 4.07x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 19476.71 | 19155.36 | 19244.21 | -1.17% | 1.65% | 0.30% | 2,558 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 19476.71 | 19155.36 | 19306.34 | -0.85% | 1.65% | 0.62% | 7,295 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 19476.71 | 19155.36 | 19249.15 | -1.15% | 1.65% | 0.62% | 10,470 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 19476.71 | 19155.36 | 19332.19 | -0.71% | 1.65% | 0.62% | 13,986 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 19476.71 | 19155.36 | 19297.19 | -0.90% | 1.65% | 0.68% | 21,064 BTC |
| 1 hour | 19476.71 | 19155.36 | 19253.00 | -1.13% | 1.65% | 0.73% | 32,734 BTC |
| 2 hours | 19609.79 | 19155.36 | 19594.64 | 0.64% | 2.32% | 0.91% | 65,656 BTC |
| 4 hours | 20185.00 | 19155.36 | 19815.82 | 1.74% | 5.10% | 1.34% | 150,561 BTC |
| 6 hours | 20185.00 | 19155.36 | 19754.95 | 1.44% | 5.10% | 1.37% | 189,239 BTC |
| 8 hours | 20185.00 | 19155.36 | 19815.82 | 1.33% | 5.10% | 1.97% | 210,195 BTC |
| 12 hours | 20185.00 | 19155.36 | 19452.68 | -0.09% | 5.10% | 1.97% | 270,476 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 4.07x | 2.03x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 4.68x | 1.77x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 3.95x | 1.81x | Exceptional |
| BNB | 3.34x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Solana | 5.06x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 4.08x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 5.31x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 4.13x | 1.90x | Exceptional |
| Chainlink | 2.82x | 1.62x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 4.62x | 1.69x | Exceptional |
| Hedera | 2.35x | 1.51x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 4.75x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 3.09x | 1.64x | Strong |
| Shiba Inu | 3.25x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 3.23x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 3.60x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| Aave | 3.79x | 1.58x | Exceptional |
| NEAR Protocol | 7.00x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Internet Computer | 2.72x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 4.46x | 1.60x | Exceptional |
| Filecoin | 4.43x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 4.07x a lot?
For a PCE release it is exceptional: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.