The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 July 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.9% for June 2022, against 0.6% in May 2022. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $23,667.44 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.85% lower, and an hour later 0.33% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.2% of its price, against 1.35% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.23x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.55x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 27 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 2.23x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the June PCE release, with its volatility ratio of 2.23x sitting just above the 2.09x median recorded across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded in line with the typical 2.55x multiple, while the price range narrowed slightly after the print compared with the preceding hour. The move therefore aligned closely with the event's established pattern rather than marking an outlier.
Distance from the policy calendar
The release arrived two days after the Federal Reserve's July rate decision and fell outside the two-week window ahead of the next meeting. PCE prints in the pre-decision fortnight have historically produced a 2.13x median volatility ratio, compared with 1.81x at other times. Traders monitoring future PCE releases can note that the event's typical impact on Bitcoin has remained consistent even when the figure coincides with related income and core-price data. The record supplies no basis for expecting larger or smaller moves from any single upcoming print, only that the quarter-hour window around the release continues to show elevated activity relative to the rest of the day.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 1.10 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 2.23x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 23699.00 | 23585.08 | 23618.90 | -0.21% | 0.48% | 0.12% | 652 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 23699.00 | 23481.01 | 23548.36 | -0.51% | 0.92% | 0.19% | 2,009 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 23699.00 | 23481.01 | 23544.11 | -0.52% | 0.92% | 0.28% | 3,178 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 23699.00 | 23435.41 | 23466.26 | -0.86% | 1.11% | 0.43% | 4,378 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 23699.00 | 23434.38 | 23512.45 | -0.66% | 1.12% | 0.56% | 8,022 BTC |
| 1 hour | 23699.00 | 23414.03 | 23589.05 | -0.33% | 1.20% | 1.34% | 12,928 BTC |
| 2 hours | 24222.00 | 23414.03 | 24127.91 | 1.91% | 3.34% | 2.21% | 33,641 BTC |
| 4 hours | 24222.00 | 23414.03 | 23657.99 | -0.04% | 3.34% | 2.49% | 57,309 BTC |
| 6 hours | 24222.00 | 23414.03 | 23883.60 | 0.91% | 3.34% | 3.73% | 74,609 BTC |
| 8 hours | 24222.00 | 23414.03 | 23657.99 | -1.17% | 3.34% | 3.00% | 89,762 BTC |
| 12 hours | 24222.00 | 23414.03 | 23869.50 | 0.85% | 3.34% | 3.73% | 107,781 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.23x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 1.93x | 1.77x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 2.02x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 1.41x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.50x | 1.57x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 1.84x | 1.52x | Ordinary |
| TRON | 3.21x | 1.43x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 1.48x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.35x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.30x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 1.89x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
| Avalanche | 1.73x | 1.55x | Ordinary |
| Litecoin | 1.92x | 1.64x | Ordinary |
| Shiba Inu | 1.84x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 0.97x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.30x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.64x | 1.58x | Ordinary |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.48x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.32x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.56x | 1.60x | Ordinary |
| Filecoin | 1.89x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 2.23x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.