How Bitcoin reacted to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures on 26 January 2024

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 January 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.2% for December 2023, against 0.1% in November 2023. Core prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.12x, against 2.03x for a typical Core PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.07x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $41,192.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.15% lower, and an hour later unchanged. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.89% of its price, against 0.99% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Core PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 17, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 31 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.12x compares with 2.09x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the Core PCE release and the accompanying Personal Income and Outlays data. Volatility reached just 1.12x its normal quarter-hour level while volume rose only 1.07x, both well below the event medians of 2.09x and 2.55x recorded since 2021. The price stood at $41,192 when the figures appeared, fell 0.15 percent within fifteen minutes, and sat unchanged an hour later; the high-to-low range actually narrowed to 0.89 percent from 0.99 percent in the prior hour.

The subdued move occurred five days before the Federal Reserve decision scheduled for 31 January. Releases of this type in the two weeks before a policy meeting have produced a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across eighteen observations since 2021, compared with 1.81x at other times. The current outcome therefore fell short of the elevated response that timing alone would normally imply.

Traders preparing for the next Core PCE print can note that even proximity to a rate decision did not guarantee larger swings on this occasion. The record shows the typical amplification from pre-Fed timing, yet individual releases can still produce minimal price action when the figures themselves align closely with prior trends.

What is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Every Core PCE release for Bitcoin