How Bitcoin reacted to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures on 29 February 2024

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 February 2024 at 8:30 AM EST. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.5% for January 2024, against 0.2% in December 2023. Core prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $62,233.21 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.85% higher, and an hour later 1.65% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.68% of its price, against 1.23% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.16x, against 2.03x for a typical Core PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.19x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Core PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 17, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.16x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 Core PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.03x.

What it means

Bitcoin's price reaction to the 29 February 2024 Core PCE release was ordinary by the standards of this event. The cryptocurrency rose from $62,233.21 at the 8:30 AM EST print to a level 0.85 percent higher fifteen minutes later and 1.65 percent higher after one hour. Its volatility ratio reached 2.16x in the quarter hour of the release, close to the 2.09x median recorded across 69 Core PCE prints since 2021. Volume rose 2.19x against the typical 2.55x for the event.

The release itself printed 0.5 percent month-over-month for January, up from 0.2 percent in December. It arrived together with the full Personal Income and Outlays report, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims. The print fell 19 days before the Federal Reserve's March decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced larger Bitcoin moves.

Core PCE releases away from the two-week window have shown a median volatility ratio of 1.81x since 2021. For a trader the episode confirms that an ordinary volatility outcome remains the baseline expectation for this event when it lands outside the pre-Fed window.

What is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Every Core PCE release for Bitcoin