The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 March 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.2% for February 2024, against 0.5% in January 2024. Core prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.43x, against 2.03x for a typical Core PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.38x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $70,021.11 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.2% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.42% of its price, against 0.66% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Core PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.09x across 17, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.43x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the Core PCE release on 29 March 2024. Its volatility ratio reached 1.43x against the 2.09x median recorded across 69 prior Core PCE prints since 2021. Volume rose only 1.38x, well below the 2.55x typical level. The price stood at $70,021.11 at the 8:30 AM print and remained unchanged fifteen minutes later. The hourly range narrowed to 0.42 percent from 0.66 percent beforehand.
The subdued move coincided with Personal Income and Outlays arriving at the same moment, yet the market registered no material shift. This release fell 32 days before the May Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window where Core PCE prints have produced a median volatility ratio of 2.13x. Against the 1.81x median for releases further from policy meetings, the observed 1.43x reading sits below even that baseline.
Traders monitoring upcoming Core PCE dates may note that distance from Federal Reserve decisions has aligned with lower volatility in Bitcoin. Releases clustered nearer policy meetings have shown higher median ratios, while those further out have tended toward quieter outcomes. The pattern supplies context rather than a forecast for the next print.
How it compares
Across 69 Core PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.71 times the usual.
Thin line: Core PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.43x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 70028.10 | 69981.10 | 70028.10 | 0.01% | 0.07% | 0.09% | 27 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 70194.02 | 69981.10 | 70163.46 | 0.20% | 0.30% | 0.18% | 142 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 70194.02 | 69981.10 | 70084.99 | 0.09% | 0.30% | 0.20% | 213 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 70194.02 | 69973.05 | 70045.02 | 0.03% | 0.31% | 0.44% | 297 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 70220.00 | 69973.05 | 70150.01 | 0.18% | 0.35% | 0.64% | 527 BTC |
| 1 hour | 70265.34 | 69973.05 | 70164.04 | 0.20% | 0.42% | 0.66% | 1,019 BTC |
| 2 hours | 70636.04 | 69973.05 | 70396.00 | 0.53% | 0.94% | 0.70% | 2,361 BTC |
| 4 hours | 70636.04 | 69009.00 | 69396.11 | -0.90% | 2.30% | 1.07% | 7,380 BTC |
| 6 hours | 70636.04 | 69009.00 | 69508.74 | -0.74% | 2.30% | 1.32% | 9,742 BTC |
| 8 hours | 70636.04 | 69009.00 | 69396.11 | -0.66% | 2.30% | 1.70% | 11,779 BTC |
| 12 hours | 70636.04 | 69009.00 | 69790.01 | -0.33% | 2.30% | 1.90% | 13,471 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Core PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.43x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.07x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 1.92x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 1.75x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 1.14x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 1.10x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.93x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.99x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 1.25x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 0.53x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.01x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.56x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
| Avalanche | 0.83x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.03x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.95x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.24x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.38x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 0.77x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.23x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 0.60x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.08x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.12x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.80x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
What is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services, excluding food and energy. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.43x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Core PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Core PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.