How Ethereum reacted to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures on 29 March 2024

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 March 2024 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Core Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.2% for February 2024, against 0.5% in January 2024. Core prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.07x, against 1.77x for a typical Core PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.85x, against a typical 2.11x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $3,536.35 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.1% higher, and an hour later 0.07% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.58% of its price, against 0.82% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Core PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.07x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

What it means

Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the February Core PCE release. Volatility reached 1.07x its normal level in the quarter hour after the print, compared with the 1.80x median recorded for this event since 2021. Volume fell to 0.85x against a typical 2.15x. The market registered almost no reaction at all.

The release arrived alongside Personal Income and Outlays and the headline PCE figure. It rose 0.1 percent in the following fifteen minutes and 0.07 percent after one hour, while its high-low range in that hour measured 0.58 percent of price against 0.82 percent in the hour before.

This Core PCE print landed 32 days before the Federal Reserve's next rate decision. Releases of this type have produced comparable volatility whether inside or outside the two-week window before a policy meeting, with medians of 1.86x and 1.77x respectively. The 1.07x outcome here therefore stands out as subdued even for a non-Fed-proximate occasion.

Traders reviewing the record for this event will note that quiet outcomes remain possible when the data print falls well away from policy meetings. The next Core PCE release will test whether quiet outcomes remain possible when the data print falls well away from policy meetings.

What is the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Every Core PCE release for Ethereum