Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 5.62x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.66x, against a typical 1.74x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $19,879.99 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.76% higher, and an hour later 2.96% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.97% of its price, against 1.06% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Census on 16 December 2020 at 8:30 AM EST. Retail Sales came in at -1.0% for November 2020, against -0.4% in October 2020. Retail sales are falling faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Retail Sales releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one came out on the day of the Federal Reserve's 16 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 5.62x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Retail Sales releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 1.54x.
About Retail Sales
The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending, an important indicator of the US GDP. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
19,392.12Close
21,735.7224h Change
2343.60 (10.78%)24h High
21,860.0524h Low
19,300.3024h Volume
120,199 BTCUS Retail Sales
Bureau of Census
16th December, 2020, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 19862.41 | 19880.00 | 19862.41 | 19880.00 | 0.09% | 0.09% | 93 BTC |
| During | 19879.99 | 19880.00 | 19848.51 | 19872.01 | -0.04% | 0.16% | 177 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19810.91 | 19880.00 | 19799.00 | 19880.00 | 0.35% | 0.41% | 346 BTC |
| During | 19879.99 | 19880.00 | 19824.54 | 19835.77 | -0.22% | 0.28% | 400 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19824.82 | 19880.00 | 19799.00 | 19880.00 | 0.28% | 0.41% | 485 BTC |
| During | 19879.99 | 19880.00 | 19810.08 | 19846.82 | -0.17% | 0.35% | 642 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19819.99 | 19880.00 | 19793.81 | 19880.00 | 0.30% | 0.43% | 738 BTC |
| During | 19879.99 | 20280.00 | 19810.08 | 20230.37 | 1.73% | 2.32% | 4,733 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 19762.80 | 19880.00 | 19762.80 | 19880.00 | 0.59% | 0.59% | 1,560 BTC |
| During | 19879.99 | 20450.00 | 19810.08 | 20319.51 | 2.16% | 3.13% | 9,950 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 19821.09 | 19889.99 | 19680.00 | 19880.00 | 0.30% | 1.06% | 4,672 BTC |
| During | 19879.99 | 20799.00 | 19810.08 | 20468.24 | 2.87% | 4.75% | 18,845 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19742.81 | 19889.99 | 19645.90 | 19880.00 | 0.69% | 1.23% | 9,322 BTC |
| During | 19879.99 | 20799.00 | 19810.08 | 20643.61 | 3.70% | 4.75% | 29,089 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19465.33 | 19889.99 | 19442.97 | 19880.00 | 2.09% | 2.25% | 22,846 BTC |
| During | 19879.99 | 20865.43 | 19810.08 | 20674.33 | 3.84% | 5.06% | 42,052 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19426.76 | 19889.99 | 19370.62 | 19880.00 | 2.28% | 2.61% | 26,359 BTC |
| During | 19879.99 | 20865.43 | 19810.08 | 20695.09 | 3.94% | 5.06% | 49,551 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19392.12 | 19497.00 | 19300.30 | 19465.34 | 0.38% | 1.01% | 13,243 BTC |
| During | 19465.33 | 20865.43 | 19442.97 | 20674.33 | 5.85% | 6.82% | 64,898 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 19392.12 | 19889.99 | 19300.30 | 19880.00 | 2.45% | 2.96% | 36,089 BTC |
| During | 19879.99 | 21860.05 | 19810.08 | 21735.72 | 8.54% | 9.38% | 84,109 BTC |
