BTC Volatility Analysis for Retail Sales, 15th January 2021

Data Analysis

The release

Released by the Bureau of Census on 15 January 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. Retail Sales came in at 0.9% for December 2020, against -1.0% in November 2020. Retail sales are rising again, after a fall.

It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles, Producer Price Index and Core Producer Price Index, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.05x, against 1.54x for a typical Retail Sales release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.95x, against a typical 1.74x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $37,484.23 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.66% higher, and an hour later 0.73% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.96% of its price, against 1.84% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Retail Sales releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.72x across 27, against 1.54x across 43. This one came out 12 days before the Federal Reserve's 27 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.05x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

About Retail Sales

The U.S. Census Bureau publishes the Retail Sales report every month. It is a measure of consumer spending, an important indicator of the US GDP. Retail firms provide data on the dollar value of their retail sales and inventories. A sample of 12,000 firms is included in the final survey and 5,000 in the advanced one. The advanced estimated data is based on a subsample from the USCB complete retail & food services sample.