Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 April 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 20.8% for March 2021, against -7.0% in February 2021. Personal income is rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.21x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.13x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,749.68 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.22% lower, and an hour later 0.12% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.12% of its price, against 1.08% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 28 April rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.21x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the Personal Income release and its accompanying figures. Volatility reached just 1.21x and volume 1.13x in the quarter hour after the print, both well below the event's typical levels since 2021. The price itself changed little, falling 0.22 percent in the first fifteen minutes and showing a high-to-low range only marginally wider than the hour before.
The release arrived two days after the Federal Reserve's April rate decision. Personal Income swung from -7.0 percent in February to 20.8 percent in March while Core PCE printed 0.4 percent and PCE 0.5 percent. Even so, the combined bundle produced no measurable move in Ethereum. Clometrix data show that Personal Income releases near Fed decisions have historically generated median volatility ratios close to those at other times, yet this instance fell short of even the broader post-decision average.
Traders watching the next Personal Income print can note that the market's response depends on context beyond the headline number itself. Releases outside the two-week window ahead of a policy decision have shown comparable dispersion to those inside it, indicating that proximity to the Federal Reserve calendar does not guarantee larger price action in Ethereum.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,758.00Close
2,771.6824h Change
13.68 (0.49%)24h High
2,798.3024h Low
2,723.0924h Volume
700,211 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
30th April, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2748.04 | 2750.00 | 2747.94 | 2749.67 | 0.06% | 0.07% | 293 ETH |
| During | 2749.68 | 2749.98 | 2746.96 | 2749.70 | 0.00% | 0.11% | 339 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2742.82 | 2750.00 | 2742.79 | 2749.67 | 0.25% | 0.26% | 2,870 ETH |
| During | 2749.68 | 2750.58 | 2743.41 | 2746.86 | -0.10% | 0.26% | 1,773 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2749.46 | 2750.00 | 2742.28 | 2749.67 | 0.01% | 0.28% | 4,697 ETH |
| During | 2749.68 | 2755.80 | 2743.01 | 2743.64 | -0.22% | 0.46% | 5,627 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2743.65 | 2753.40 | 2742.28 | 2749.67 | 0.22% | 0.40% | 8,294 ETH |
| During | 2749.68 | 2755.80 | 2740.56 | 2743.67 | -0.22% | 0.55% | 7,729 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2739.05 | 2753.40 | 2733.09 | 2749.67 | 0.39% | 0.74% | 16,236 ETH |
| During | 2749.68 | 2755.80 | 2740.56 | 2748.34 | -0.05% | 0.55% | 15,505 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2757.74 | 2759.76 | 2730.11 | 2749.67 | -0.29% | 1.07% | 34,263 ETH |
| During | 2749.68 | 2755.80 | 2725.00 | 2746.43 | -0.12% | 1.12% | 34,960 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2776.32 | 2782.00 | 2730.11 | 2749.67 | -0.97% | 1.87% | 67,407 ETH |
| During | 2749.68 | 2766.67 | 2723.09 | 2763.98 | 0.52% | 1.58% | 93,252 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2771.53 | 2798.30 | 2730.11 | 2749.67 | -0.80% | 2.44% | 127,268 ETH |
| During | 2749.68 | 2767.00 | 2723.09 | 2748.12 | -0.06% | 1.59% | 180,970 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2776.25 | 2798.30 | 2730.11 | 2749.67 | -0.97% | 2.44% | 186,745 ETH |
| During | 2749.68 | 2774.62 | 2723.09 | 2760.54 | 0.39% | 1.86% | 235,764 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2758.00 | 2792.00 | 2725.93 | 2771.53 | 0.49% | 2.37% | 208,854 ETH |
| During | 2771.53 | 2798.30 | 2723.09 | 2748.12 | -0.85% | 2.69% | 308,237 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2758.00 | 2798.30 | 2725.93 | 2749.67 | -0.30% | 2.59% | 336,121 ETH |
| During | 2749.68 | 2785.00 | 2723.09 | 2771.68 | 0.79% | 2.22% | 364,090 ETH |
