Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 May 2021 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at -12.9% for April 2021, against 20.8% in March 2021. Personal income is falling, after a rise.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.14x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.33x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,569.63 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.81% lower, and an hour later 0.46% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.22% of its price, against 6.02% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.14x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the Personal Income release. Its volatility ratio reached only 1.14x against the event's typical 1.80x since 2021, while volume rose 1.33x against a 2.15x benchmark. Both measures stayed below the 1.5x threshold that Clometrix treats as a non-reaction, so the market effectively ignored the print.
The price path confirmed the subdued profile. Ethereum stood at $2,569.63 at release, fell 0.81 percent within fifteen minutes, then recovered to a net gain of 0.46 percent after one hour. Its high-to-low range in the following hour measured 3.22 percent of spot, narrower than the 6.02 percent range recorded in the hour before the data arrived.
Timing offers little additional explanation. The release fell outside the two-week window ahead of the June 2021 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, a period in which Personal Income prints have historically produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum, close to the 1.77x median recorded at other times. The 1.14x outcome therefore fell short of what the surrounding calendar would normally imply.
Traders reviewing the next Personal Income release can note that even sizable surprises have produced only modest volatility when the broader schedule contains no immediate policy event. The record supplies no basis for expecting a larger move solely from the size of the income figure itself.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,747.97Close
2,457.6424h Change
-290.33 (-11.81%)24h High
2,748.2724h Low
2,327.3824h Volume
1.57M ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
28th May, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2567.81 | 2569.62 | 2558.98 | 2569.35 | 0.06% | 0.41% | 1,810 ETH |
| During | 2569.63 | 2570.76 | 2555.16 | 2556.21 | -0.52% | 0.61% | 2,411 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2567.84 | 2571.41 | 2551.93 | 2569.35 | 0.06% | 0.76% | 11,285 ETH |
| During | 2569.63 | 2570.76 | 2535.74 | 2536.76 | -1.30% | 1.36% | 9,075 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2519.20 | 2574.08 | 2515.08 | 2569.35 | 1.95% | 2.29% | 20,882 ETH |
| During | 2569.63 | 2570.76 | 2534.92 | 2548.31 | -0.84% | 1.39% | 14,633 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2543.45 | 2574.08 | 2515.08 | 2569.35 | 1.01% | 2.29% | 35,497 ETH |
| During | 2569.63 | 2570.76 | 2534.92 | 2548.82 | -0.82% | 1.39% | 18,860 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2435.65 | 2574.08 | 2421.43 | 2569.35 | 5.20% | 5.93% | 70,910 ETH |
| During | 2569.63 | 2574.96 | 2534.92 | 2562.84 | -0.26% | 1.55% | 34,677 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2467.76 | 2574.08 | 2419.46 | 2569.35 | 3.95% | 6.01% | 122,153 ETH |
| During | 2569.63 | 2617.78 | 2534.92 | 2581.35 | 0.45% | 3.17% | 97,712 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2507.66 | 2574.08 | 2419.46 | 2569.35 | 2.40% | 6.01% | 181,347 ETH |
| During | 2569.63 | 2617.78 | 2534.92 | 2558.24 | -0.45% | 3.17% | 160,582 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2551.97 | 2574.08 | 2419.46 | 2569.35 | 0.68% | 6.01% | 388,621 ETH |
| During | 2569.63 | 2617.78 | 2503.00 | 2509.44 | -2.40% | 4.38% | 272,254 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2537.80 | 2590.03 | 2419.46 | 2569.35 | 1.23% | 6.59% | 530,381 ETH |
| During | 2569.63 | 2617.78 | 2456.25 | 2496.35 | -2.94% | 6.17% | 375,784 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2747.97 | 2748.27 | 2513.00 | 2552.00 | -7.68% | 8.56% | 431,945 ETH |
| During | 2551.97 | 2617.78 | 2419.46 | 2509.44 | -1.69% | 7.58% | 660,875 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2747.97 | 2748.27 | 2419.46 | 2569.35 | -6.95% | 11.96% | 820,566 ETH |
| During | 2569.63 | 2617.78 | 2327.38 | 2457.64 | -4.56% | 11.09% | 749,174 ETH |
