Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.94x, against 2.03x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.77x, against a typical 2.52x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $78,713.70 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.57% lower, and an hour later 0.84% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.02% of its price, against 0.54% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 August 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.4% for July 2026, against 0.2% in June 2026. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 3.94x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the 26 August 2026 Personal Income release. Volatility reached 3.94 times the level of an ordinary quarter hour, compared with the 2.09 times median across 69 prior releases since 2021. Volume expanded 4.77 times against a typical 2.55 times. The price fell 0.57 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 0.84 percent within the hour, while the hourly high-low range widened to 1.02 percent from 0.54 percent beforehand.
The release occurred twenty days before the September FOMC meeting and therefore outside the two-week window that has historically produced larger median moves.
The outcome shows that larger-than-typical reactions remain possible when several data streams are published together, irrespective of proximity to policy decisions. Traders monitoring the next Personal Income release can observe that the long-run record contains precedent for moves of this scale when multiple indicators coincide, without assuming any particular magnitude will recur.
How it compares
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 1.95 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 3.94x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 78713.70 | 77918.25 | 78369.30 | -0.44% | 1.01% | 0.11% | 361 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 78713.70 | 77918.25 | 78400.00 | -0.40% | 1.01% | 0.17% | 457 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 78713.70 | 77918.25 | 78240.00 | -0.61% | 1.01% | 0.42% | 540 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 78713.70 | 77918.25 | 78265.99 | -0.57% | 1.01% | 0.54% | 594 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 78713.70 | 77918.25 | 78319.59 | -0.50% | 1.01% | 0.54% | 767 BTC |
| 1 hour | 78713.70 | 77913.19 | 78052.01 | -0.85% | 1.02% | 0.54% | 1,206 BTC |
| 2 hours | 78713.70 | 77913.19 | 78247.99 | -0.60% | 1.02% | 0.75% | 2,079 BTC |
| 4 hours | 78713.70 | 77632.58 | 78060.62 | -0.84% | 1.37% | 0.98% | 3,716 BTC |
| 6 hours | 78713.70 | 77632.58 | 78468.00 | -0.31% | 1.37% | 1.11% | 4,862 BTC |
| 8 hours | 79022.44 | 77632.58 | 78060.62 | -1.19% | 1.76% | 1.12% | 6,078 BTC |
| 12 hours | 79174.12 | 77632.58 | 78902.00 | 0.24% | 1.95% | 1.27% | 8,003 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3.94x | 2.03x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 3.27x | 1.77x | Strong |
| XRP | 2.01x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 3.15x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Solana | 3.18x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 3.07x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 1.50x | 1.43x | Ordinary |
| Cardano | 3.11x | 1.90x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 3.60x | 1.62x | Exceptional |
| Sui | 3.19x | 1.53x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.58x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 2.68x | 1.51x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 3.69x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 2.95x | 1.64x | Strong |
| Gram | 1.01x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 2.35x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 2.34x | 1.49x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 2.43x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Aave | 2.38x | 1.58x | Strong |
| Bittensor | 2.38x | 1.68x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.00x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Aptos | 2.66x | 1.73x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 3.97x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.07x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 3.07x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 3.94x a lot?
For a Personal Income release it is strong: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.