Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 23 December 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.5% for November 2021, against 0.8% in October 2021. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.82x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.02x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $3,960.10 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.22% lower, and an hour later 0.57% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.94% of its price, against 0.8% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 0.82x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the Personal Income release. Volatility reached just 0.82x against the 1.80x typical for the event since 2021, while volume stayed near flat at 1.02x versus the usual 2.15x. Both ratios compare the release quarter-hour with an ordinary one the same day, confirming the market barely noticed the print.
The data arrived alongside Durable Goods Orders, Core PCE, jobless claims and several other releases. Ethereum stood at $3,960.10 at the moment of publication. It fell 0.22% within fifteen minutes and 0.57% within the hour, while its high-to-low range expanded only modestly to 0.94% from 0.8% in the prior hour.
This release occurred 33 days before the next Federal Reserve decision, outside the two-week window where Personal Income prints have historically produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x. The observed 0.82x therefore sits below both the event's usual magnitude and the level seen in comparable timing. A trader reviewing the record may note that releases of this type have not produced outsized moves when they fall well clear of policy meetings.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
3,946.82Close
4,113.1824h Change
166.36 (4.04%)24h High
4,150.0024h Low
3,893.2324h Volume
366,839 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
23rd December, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 3958.78 | 3960.61 | 3958.77 | 3960.12 | 0.03% | 0.05% | 93 ETH |
| During | 3960.10 | 3960.82 | 3956.74 | 3957.21 | -0.07% | 0.10% | 169 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3960.87 | 3961.40 | 3955.97 | 3960.12 | -0.02% | 0.14% | 557 ETH |
| During | 3960.10 | 3965.50 | 3956.37 | 3959.77 | -0.01% | 0.23% | 1,029 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3959.00 | 3965.00 | 3954.76 | 3960.12 | 0.03% | 0.26% | 1,646 ETH |
| During | 3960.10 | 3965.50 | 3955.56 | 3960.10 | 0.00% | 0.25% | 1,932 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3954.14 | 3965.00 | 3953.00 | 3960.12 | 0.15% | 0.30% | 2,294 ETH |
| During | 3960.10 | 3965.50 | 3951.03 | 3951.34 | -0.22% | 0.36% | 2,618 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 3944.23 | 3965.00 | 3944.22 | 3960.12 | 0.40% | 0.52% | 5,261 ETH |
| During | 3960.10 | 3965.50 | 3943.60 | 3947.53 | -0.32% | 0.55% | 5,277 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 3937.35 | 3965.00 | 3933.39 | 3960.12 | 0.57% | 0.80% | 9,811 ETH |
| During | 3960.10 | 3965.50 | 3928.46 | 3937.57 | -0.57% | 0.93% | 11,966 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3931.28 | 3965.00 | 3921.24 | 3960.12 | 0.73% | 1.10% | 17,966 ETH |
| During | 3960.10 | 3965.50 | 3925.54 | 3953.56 | -0.17% | 1.01% | 25,263 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3920.81 | 3965.00 | 3905.01 | 3960.12 | 0.99% | 1.51% | 39,353 ETH |
| During | 3960.10 | 4001.98 | 3925.54 | 3996.56 | 0.91% | 1.91% | 53,848 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3961.08 | 3965.00 | 3893.23 | 3960.12 | -0.02% | 1.81% | 71,628 ETH |
| During | 3960.10 | 4136.94 | 3925.54 | 4125.72 | 4.01% | 5.11% | 145,528 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3946.82 | 4005.00 | 3893.23 | 3920.82 | -0.66% | 2.79% | 89,718 ETH |
| During | 3920.81 | 4001.98 | 3905.01 | 3996.56 | 1.90% | 2.42% | 93,201 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 3946.82 | 4005.00 | 3893.23 | 3960.12 | 0.34% | 2.79% | 129,071 ETH |
| During | 3960.10 | 4150.00 | 3925.54 | 4113.18 | 3.72% | 5.41% | 237,768 ETH |
