Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 24 November 2021 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.8% for October 2021, against -0.6% in September 2021. Personal income is rising again, after a fall.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $4,293.44 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.68% lower, and an hour later 2.1% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.97% of its price, against 1.07% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.80x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.94x, against a typical 2.15x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.80x compares with 1.77x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Ethereum posted a measured decline after the November 2021 data cluster that included Personal Income. The price stood at $4,293.44 at release and fell 0.68 percent within fifteen minutes and 2.1 percent within the hour. Its high-to-low range widened to 2.97 percent of spot from 1.07 percent in the prior hour.
The volatility ratio of 1.80x matched the median recorded across sixty-nine Personal Income releases since 2021. Volume rose only 0.94x against the 2.15x typical for the event. Clometrix therefore classifies the move as ordinary for this release type.
The outcome aligned with the timing pattern for releases outside the two weeks before a Fed decision observed since 2021. Its own ratio therefore sat where the historical split would place it.
Traders may note that Personal Income prints have shown consistent median volatility impact regardless of proximity to policy meetings. The current case reinforces that the event's typical magnitude, rather than calendar position, sets the scale of the reaction.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
4,317.99Close
4,328.6924h Change
10.70 (0.25%)24h High
4,342.2724h Low
4,167.6524h Volume
452,899 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
24th November, 2021, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 4291.30 | 4294.27 | 4289.66 | 4293.44 | 0.05% | 0.11% | 195 ETH |
| During | 4293.44 | 4297.33 | 4293.19 | 4295.67 | 0.05% | 0.10% | 205 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4294.03 | 4300.00 | 4288.50 | 4293.44 | -0.01% | 0.27% | 1,120 ETH |
| During | 4293.44 | 4306.41 | 4290.32 | 4292.31 | -0.03% | 0.37% | 1,093 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4284.27 | 4300.00 | 4278.23 | 4293.44 | 0.21% | 0.51% | 1,930 ETH |
| During | 4293.44 | 4306.41 | 4265.05 | 4266.90 | -0.62% | 0.96% | 2,693 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4290.25 | 4300.00 | 4276.46 | 4293.44 | 0.07% | 0.55% | 3,262 ETH |
| During | 4293.44 | 4306.41 | 4262.72 | 4264.24 | -0.68% | 1.01% | 3,824 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 4276.07 | 4306.10 | 4260.04 | 4293.44 | 0.40% | 1.07% | 10,203 ETH |
| During | 4293.44 | 4306.41 | 4207.60 | 4220.38 | -1.73% | 2.29% | 16,789 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 4296.85 | 4306.10 | 4260.04 | 4293.44 | -0.08% | 1.07% | 19,605 ETH |
| During | 4293.44 | 4306.41 | 4178.93 | 4203.09 | -2.15% | 2.96% | 40,504 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4277.22 | 4310.58 | 4260.04 | 4293.44 | 0.38% | 1.17% | 36,069 ETH |
| During | 4293.44 | 4306.41 | 4167.65 | 4218.15 | -1.78% | 3.22% | 66,068 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4327.60 | 4328.00 | 4254.00 | 4293.44 | -0.80% | 1.71% | 63,886 ETH |
| During | 4293.44 | 4306.41 | 4167.65 | 4224.70 | -1.63% | 3.22% | 109,569 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4281.73 | 4342.27 | 4254.00 | 4293.44 | 0.27% | 2.03% | 104,115 ETH |
| During | 4293.44 | 4306.41 | 4167.65 | 4212.40 | -1.92% | 3.22% | 142,011 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4317.99 | 4342.27 | 4216.75 | 4327.60 | 0.22% | 2.89% | 152,720 ETH |
| During | 4327.60 | 4328.00 | 4167.65 | 4224.70 | -2.44% | 3.70% | 173,455 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 4317.99 | 4342.27 | 4216.75 | 4293.44 | -0.57% | 2.89% | 216,606 ETH |
| During | 4293.44 | 4336.00 | 4167.65 | 4328.69 | 0.81% | 3.88% | 236,293 ETH |
