ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 28th January 2022

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 3.08x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.07x, against a typical 2.15x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $2,380.23 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.65% higher, and an hour later 2.06% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.55% of its price, against 1.59% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 January 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for December 2021, against 0.5% in November 2021. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 26 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 3.08x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.

What it means

Ethereum posted a strong reaction to the Personal Income and Outlays release. Volatility in the quarter hour after the print reached more than three times the level of an ordinary quarter hour that day, against a median of 1.80x across 69 prior Personal Income releases since 2021. Volume expanded by a similar margin relative to the event's typical footprint.

The figures arrived together with Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core PCE prints. They landed two days after the Federal Reserve's January rate decision, outside the two-week pre-decision window that has historically produced only marginally higher median volatility for Ethereum. The scale of movement still exceeded the 1.77x median recorded for releases at comparable distances from policy meetings.

Price action showed a clear directional shift. Ethereum stood at $2,380.23 at the moment of release, then traded 1.65 percent higher within fifteen minutes and 2.06 percent higher within an hour, with a high-to-low range of 2.55 percent in that first hour versus 1.59 percent in the hour before.

For traders the episode illustrates that Personal Income releases can still generate outsized volatility when accompanied by related consumption data, even when timing relative to Federal Reserve decisions would not by itself suggest elevated sensitivity. The next release of the series will show whether that amplification occurs again.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

2,415.39

2,536.83

24h Change

121.44 (4.79%)

24h High

2,585.89

24h Low

2,357.88

24h Volume

487,197 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

28th January, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	2382.01	2382.63	2378.55	2380.23	-0.07%	0.17%	84 ETH
During	2380.23	2399.28	2380.22	2395.95	0.66%	0.79%	1,491 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	2385.46	2386.76	2376.54	2380.23	-0.22%	0.43%	2,764 ETH
During	2380.23	2419.45	2380.22	2414.03	1.40%	1.62%	6,973 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	2390.70	2391.77	2376.54	2380.23	-0.44%	0.64%	4,313 ETH
During	2380.23	2436.91	2380.22	2432.67	2.16%	2.33%	14,668 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	2383.34	2395.65	2376.54	2380.23	-0.13%	0.80%	5,762 ETH
During	2380.23	2436.91	2380.22	2419.58	1.63%	2.33%	17,245 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	2374.92	2395.65	2369.57	2380.23	0.22%	1.09%	9,352 ETH
During	2380.23	2436.91	2380.22	2430.45	2.07%	2.33%	21,973 ETH

1 Hour
Before	2376.63	2395.65	2357.88	2380.23	0.15%	1.58%	17,538 ETH
During	2380.23	2440.95	2380.22	2429.19	2.02%	2.49%	30,465 ETH

2 Hours
Before	2378.96	2404.97	2357.88	2380.23	0.05%	1.96%	32,570 ETH
During	2380.23	2440.95	2380.11	2417.46	1.54%	2.49%	69,956 ETH

4 Hours
Before	2407.05	2412.71	2357.88	2380.23	-1.13%	2.27%	62,796 ETH
During	2380.23	2492.26	2380.11	2464.01	3.40%	4.50%	125,491 ETH

6 Hours
Before	2422.64	2426.65	2357.88	2380.23	-1.78%	2.83%	105,130 ETH
During	2380.23	2492.26	2380.11	2447.00	2.73%	4.50%	151,420 ETH

8 Hours
Before	2415.39	2474.09	2360.00	2407.05	-0.35%	4.61%	153,556 ETH
During	2407.05	2492.26	2357.88	2464.01	2.31%	5.39%	188,287 ETH

12 Hours
Before	2415.39	2474.09	2357.88	2380.23	-1.48%	4.70%	216,352 ETH
During	2380.23	2585.89	2380.11	2536.83	6.17%	7.96%	270,845 ETH