The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 October 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.2% for September 2026, against 0.2% in August 2026. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims and Gross Domestic Product Report, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.46x, against 1.77x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.20x, against a typical 2.11x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,324.02 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.21% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.59% of its price, against 0.31% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 28 October rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.46x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered a quiet reaction to the Personal Income release, posting a volatility ratio of 1.46x against the event's typical 1.80x since 2021. Volume expanded only 1.20x versus the usual 2.15x. Both measures stayed below the 1.5x line that marks any meaningful response.
Ethereum sat at $2,324.02 at 8:30 AM. Fifteen minutes later the price was unchanged and one hour later it had risen just 0.21 percent. The high-to-low range in the following hour reached 0.59 percent of spot, up from 0.31 percent in the prior hour.
This release fell the day after the Federal Reserve's October decision and 40 days before the next scheduled meeting. Releases inside the two-week window before policy decisions have shown a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18 prior cases. The 1.46x recorded here therefore sat below both the event norm and the timing benchmark. Traders monitoring the next Personal Income print may note that this release produced no material shift in Ethereum's immediate behavior.
How it compares
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 0.82 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 1.46x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 2329.96 | 2323.18 | 2325.08 | 0.05% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 694 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 2329.96 | 2318.58 | 2320.85 | -0.14% | 0.49% | 0.12% | 1,538 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 2329.96 | 2317.84 | 2324.22 | 0.01% | 0.52% | 0.13% | 2,192 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 2329.96 | 2317.84 | 2323.08 | -0.04% | 0.52% | 0.16% | 2,540 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 2329.96 | 2317.84 | 2323.11 | -0.04% | 0.52% | 0.22% | 3,393 ETH |
| 1 hour | 2331.48 | 2317.84 | 2328.97 | 0.21% | 0.59% | 0.31% | 6,080 ETH |
| 2 hours | 2333.31 | 2313.65 | 2329.43 | 0.23% | 0.84% | 0.55% | 15,446 ETH |
| 4 hours | 2379.55 | 2313.65 | 2357.66 | 1.43% | 2.77% | 0.86% | 57,854 ETH |
| 6 hours | 2379.55 | 2313.65 | 2335.30 | 0.48% | 2.77% | 1.10% | 82,292 ETH |
| 8 hours | 2379.55 | 2310.92 | 2357.66 | 1.79% | 2.88% | 2.75% | 77,688 ETH |
| 12 hours | 2379.55 | 2200.00 | 2208.55 | -5.23% | 7.55% | 2.75% | 360,242 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.24x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.46x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.00x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 0.88x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.51x | 1.57x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 1.28x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 0.67x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.09x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.31x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 1.09x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 0.89x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.16x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 0.99x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.10x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | 0.00x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.99x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.00x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.14x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.27x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.02x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.25x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.76x | 1.73x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 1.01x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.29x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.14x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 1.46x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.