Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 5.04x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 16.70x, against a typical 2.15x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,703.75 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.96% higher, and an hour later 0.7% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.42% of its price, against 0.61% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 30 September 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.2% for August 2026, against 0.4% in July 2026. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures and Gross Domestic Product Report, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 5.04x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Ethereum recorded an exceptional reaction to the data cluster released at 8:30 AM EDT. The price rose 0.96 percent within fifteen minutes and posted a 1.42 percent high-to-low range over the following hour. That movement produced a volatility ratio of 5.04 times the quiet baseline, well above the 1.80 times median observed across 69 prior Personal Income releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 16.70 times normal levels.
The income figure itself printed 0.2 percent for August after 0.4 percent in July and arrived alongside GDP at 2.2 percent annualized, PCE at 0.3 percent and core PCE at 0.2 percent. The release fell 27 days before the next Federal Reserve decision, outside the two-week window in which Personal Income prints have historically produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86 times for Ethereum.
The 5.04 times outcome therefore exceeded both the long-term event median and the 1.77 times median recorded for releases at comparable distances from policy meetings. Traders preparing for the next Personal Income release may observe that simultaneous publication of consumption and output data has coincided with larger price ranges than the income print produces in isolation.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
2,673.41Close
2,682.5224h Change
9.11 (0.34%)24h High
2,738.5124h Low
2,656.9224h Volume
270,937 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
30th September, 2026, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 2697.71 | 2708.20 | 2697.71 | 2703.59 | 0.22% | 0.39% | 1,258 ETH |
| During | 2703.75 | 2717.88 | 2700.10 | 2715.18 | 0.42% | 0.65% | 3,003 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2698.39 | 2708.20 | 2696.36 | 2703.59 | 0.19% | 0.44% | 1,901 ETH |
| During | 2703.75 | 2724.61 | 2700.10 | 2724.23 | 0.75% | 0.90% | 9,498 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2694.64 | 2708.20 | 2693.17 | 2703.59 | 0.33% | 0.55% | 2,432 ETH |
| During | 2703.75 | 2729.76 | 2700.10 | 2727.72 | 0.88% | 1.09% | 20,074 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2699.51 | 2708.20 | 2693.17 | 2703.59 | 0.15% | 0.55% | 2,935 ETH |
| During | 2703.75 | 2733.00 | 2700.10 | 2729.73 | 0.95% | 1.20% | 26,245 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 2697.79 | 2708.20 | 2692.61 | 2703.59 | 0.21% | 0.58% | 4,378 ETH |
| During | 2703.75 | 2738.51 | 2700.10 | 2731.01 | 1.00% | 1.40% | 42,283 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 2693.48 | 2708.20 | 2691.84 | 2703.59 | 0.37% | 0.60% | 8,472 ETH |
| During | 2703.75 | 2738.51 | 2700.10 | 2722.63 | 0.69% | 1.40% | 59,744 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2693.04 | 2708.20 | 2685.37 | 2703.59 | 0.39% | 0.84% | 16,287 ETH |
| During | 2703.75 | 2738.51 | 2676.31 | 2680.72 | -0.86% | 2.27% | 95,165 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2668.69 | 2708.20 | 2665.00 | 2703.59 | 1.29% | 1.60% | 36,485 ETH |
| During | 2703.75 | 2738.51 | 2668.00 | 2688.06 | -0.58% | 2.57% | 130,268 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2666.61 | 2708.20 | 2656.92 | 2703.59 | 1.37% | 1.89% | 54,004 ETH |
| During | 2703.75 | 2738.51 | 2668.00 | 2679.97 | -0.89% | 2.57% | 149,396 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2673.41 | 2680.62 | 2656.92 | 2668.70 | -0.18% | 0.88% | 56,348 ETH |
| During | 2668.69 | 2738.51 | 2665.00 | 2688.06 | 0.72% | 2.68% | 166,753 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 2673.41 | 2708.20 | 2656.92 | 2703.59 | 1.12% | 1.89% | 92,833 ETH |
| During | 2703.75 | 2738.51 | 2667.94 | 2682.52 | -0.79% | 2.58% | 178,104 ETH |
