The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 May 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.0% for April 2026, against 0.6% in March 2026. Personal income was flat.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.12x, against 2.03x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.95x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $73,378.41 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.15% higher, and an hour later 0.3% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.79% of its price, against 0.39% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.12x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the Personal Income release and the cluster of indicators published alongside it. Volatility reached 1.12x in the quarter hour after the print, compared with the 2.09x median across 69 earlier releases since 2021. Volume stayed essentially flat at 0.95x against a typical 2.55x. The market therefore registered almost no change from an ordinary quarter hour on the same day.
It rose 0.15% in the next fifteen minutes and finished the hour 0.3% lower, while the high-low range expanded only to 0.79% from 0.39% in the prior hour.
Releases of this type have historically moved Bitcoin more when they fall inside the two-week window before a Federal Reserve decision, carrying a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18 observations versus 1.81x across the remaining 51. This release occurred 19 days before the June meeting and therefore sat outside the two-week window before a Federal Reserve decision. Its 1.12x ratio fell below even the 1.81x benchmark that applies to releases at comparable times.
Traders reviewing the record may observe that Personal Income prints distant from policy meetings have tended to leave Bitcoin largely unmoved, and that the next instance will need to be assessed against its own proximity to the Federal Open Market Committee calendar rather than against any fixed expectation.
How it compares
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.55 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.12x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 73505.94 | 73378.41 | 73505.94 | 0.17% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 22 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 73543.67 | 73378.41 | 73475.13 | 0.13% | 0.22% | 0.19% | 56 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 73543.67 | 73354.03 | 73486.50 | 0.15% | 0.26% | 0.22% | 118 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 73543.67 | 73354.03 | 73487.27 | 0.15% | 0.26% | 0.23% | 153 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 73580.75 | 73354.03 | 73518.01 | 0.19% | 0.31% | 0.37% | 251 BTC |
| 1 hour | 73580.75 | 73000.00 | 73160.52 | -0.30% | 0.79% | 0.39% | 672 BTC |
| 2 hours | 73580.75 | 72582.82 | 72965.07 | -0.57% | 1.36% | 0.48% | 2,975 BTC |
| 4 hours | 73580.75 | 72582.82 | 73150.02 | -0.31% | 1.36% | 0.57% | 4,866 BTC |
| 6 hours | 73749.69 | 72582.82 | 73588.87 | 0.29% | 1.58% | 1.16% | 6,291 BTC |
| 8 hours | 73616.00 | 72582.82 | 73150.02 | -0.15% | 1.40% | 2.50% | 6,799 BTC |
| 12 hours | 73949.22 | 72582.82 | 73778.00 | 0.54% | 1.85% | 2.50% | 8,946 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.12x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.28x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.00x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.32x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.52x | 1.57x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 1.35x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.29x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 2.11x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 2.01x | 1.62x | Ordinary |
| Sui | 1.52x | 1.53x | Ordinary |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.03x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.68x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
| Avalanche | 1.80x | 1.55x | Ordinary |
| Litecoin | 1.71x | 1.64x | Ordinary |
| Gram | 2.01x | 1.32x | Strong |
| Shiba Inu | 1.36x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.02x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.03x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.13x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.68x | 1.68x | Ordinary |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.68x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.89x | 1.73x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 1.05x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.81x | 1.60x | Ordinary |
| Filecoin | 1.15x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 1.12x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.