The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 July 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for June 2023, against 0.5% in May 2023. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Aptos's volatility ratio was 1.00x, against 1.73x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.16x, against a typical 2.76x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Aptos moved
Aptos was at $7.050 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.14% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.43% of its price, against 0.43% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Aptos about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.79x across 15, against 1.70x across 33. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 26 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.00x compares with 1.70x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
How it compares
Across 48 Personal Income releases since 2021, Aptos's usual price swing is 1.73x. This one was 0.58 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 1.73x. Thick line: this release, 1.00x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 7.05 | 7.05 | 7.05 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.14% | 1,438 APT |
| 5 minutes | 7.06 | 7.05 | 7.05 | 0.00% | 0.14% | 0.14% | 4,379 APT |
| 10 minutes | 7.06 | 7.04 | 7.05 | 0.00% | 0.28% | 0.14% | 6,612 APT |
| 15 minutes | 7.06 | 7.04 | 7.05 | 0.00% | 0.28% | 0.14% | 9,019 APT |
| 30 minutes | 7.07 | 7.04 | 7.07 | 0.28% | 0.42% | 0.28% | 15,059 APT |
| 1 hour | 7.07 | 7.04 | 7.04 | -0.14% | 0.42% | 0.42% | 27,440 APT |
| 2 hours | 7.08 | 7.02 | 7.08 | 0.42% | 0.85% | 0.71% | 80,907 APT |
| 4 hours | 7.10 | 7.02 | 7.05 | 0.00% | 1.13% | 0.85% | 215,796 APT |
| 6 hours | 7.10 | 6.99 | 7.02 | -0.43% | 1.55% | 1.27% | 296,924 APT |
| 8 hours | 7.10 | 7.02 | 7.05 | 0.28% | 1.13% | 1.97% | 459,796 APT |
| 12 hours | 7.10 | 6.99 | 7.07 | 0.28% | 1.55% | 1.97% | 427,362 APT |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 0.95x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.47x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.89x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.33x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 0.99x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 0.91x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.24x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.37x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.49x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 3.09x | 1.53x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.19x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.01x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.00x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 0.50x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 0.66x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 0.50x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.52x | 1.58x | Ordinary |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.01x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.00x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.02x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 0.78x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 0.00x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 1.00x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Aptos moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.