Data Analysis
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 July 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.3% for June 2023, against 0.5% in May 2023. Personal income is still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 1.47x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.21x, against a typical 2.15x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,871.90 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.1% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.21% of its price, against 0.3% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 26 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.47x compares with 1.77x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum registered almost no price movement after the Personal Income release. The cryptocurrency stood at $1,871.90 when the figures appeared and stayed flat fifteen minutes later. One hour afterward the price sat 0.1 percent lower, while the hourly high-to-low range narrowed to 0.21 percent from 0.3 percent in the prior hour.
The muted outcome arrived alongside the Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures prints. Volatility reached 1.47 times normal levels in the quarter hour of the release, below the 1.80 times median recorded for Personal Income events since 2021. Volume expanded 2.21 times against a typical 2.15 times, confirming the market assigned little weight to the combined data.
Placement two days after the Federal Reserve's July rate decision helps explain the limited response. Personal Income releases inside the two-week window ahead of policy meetings have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86 times across eighteen observations, nearly identical to the 1.77 times median across fifty-one releases at other times. This event fell short of even that baseline.
Traders watching the next Personal Income print may therefore treat releases that follow closely after a Federal Reserve decision as carrying reduced potential to shift Ethereum prices, regardless of the headline surprise.
About Personal Income and Outlays
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
ETH-USDT
Ethereum
Open
1,862.42Close
1,876.2324h Change
13.81 (0.74%)24h High
1,883.3924h Low
1,856.5224h Volume
138,451 ETHUS Personal Income and Outlays
Bureau of Economic Analysis
28th July, 2023, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 1870.89 | 1872.22 | 1870.88 | 1871.90 | 0.05% | 0.07% | 280 ETH |
| During | 1871.90 | 1872.50 | 1871.08 | 1872.47 | 0.03% | 0.08% | 641 ETH |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1869.41 | 1872.22 | 1869.40 | 1871.90 | 0.13% | 0.15% | 680 ETH |
| During | 1871.90 | 1873.45 | 1871.08 | 1872.94 | 0.06% | 0.13% | 1,573 ETH |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1869.17 | 1872.22 | 1869.16 | 1871.90 | 0.15% | 0.16% | 791 ETH |
| During | 1871.90 | 1873.45 | 1871.08 | 1871.62 | -0.01% | 0.13% | 2,204 ETH |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1869.28 | 1872.22 | 1869.16 | 1871.90 | 0.14% | 0.16% | 1,529 ETH |
| During | 1871.90 | 1873.45 | 1870.60 | 1871.08 | -0.04% | 0.15% | 2,613 ETH |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 1866.63 | 1872.22 | 1866.60 | 1871.90 | 0.28% | 0.30% | 3,211 ETH |
| During | 1871.90 | 1873.45 | 1869.84 | 1872.21 | 0.02% | 0.19% | 3,949 ETH |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 1867.00 | 1872.22 | 1866.60 | 1871.90 | 0.26% | 0.30% | 5,778 ETH |
| During | 1871.90 | 1873.45 | 1869.44 | 1869.98 | -0.10% | 0.21% | 6,939 ETH |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1866.82 | 1872.22 | 1865.26 | 1871.90 | 0.27% | 0.37% | 10,737 ETH |
| During | 1871.90 | 1879.83 | 1868.23 | 1879.15 | 0.39% | 0.62% | 20,820 ETH |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1862.35 | 1872.22 | 1861.20 | 1871.90 | 0.51% | 0.59% | 27,100 ETH |
| During | 1871.90 | 1883.39 | 1868.23 | 1877.56 | 0.30% | 0.80% | 43,044 ETH |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1859.93 | 1872.22 | 1858.88 | 1871.90 | 0.64% | 0.71% | 41,334 ETH |
| During | 1871.90 | 1883.39 | 1866.27 | 1872.89 | 0.05% | 0.91% | 55,668 ETH |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1862.42 | 1864.99 | 1856.52 | 1862.34 | 0.00% | 0.45% | 40,557 ETH |
| During | 1862.35 | 1883.39 | 1861.20 | 1877.56 | 0.81% | 1.18% | 70,144 ETH |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 1862.42 | 1872.22 | 1856.52 | 1871.90 | 0.51% | 0.84% | 67,657 ETH |
| During | 1871.90 | 1883.39 | 1866.27 | 1876.23 | 0.23% | 0.91% | 70,794 ETH |
