The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 13 March 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.4% for January 2026, against 0.3% in December 2025. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.28x, against 2.03x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.00x, against a typical 2.52x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $72,412.15 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.1% lower, and an hour later 0.84% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.29% of its price, against 0.42% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 18 March rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.28x compares with 2.13x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Volume showed no elevation at all, holding at 1.00x while the event's typical reading stands at 2.55x. The market therefore absorbed the data without measurable disruption, even though the print arrived alongside Durable Goods Orders, GDP, PCE and Core PCE figures.
Price action remained contained. Bitcoin sat at $72,412.15 at the 8:30 AM release, moved 0.1% lower within fifteen minutes and stood 0.84% higher after one hour. Its high-low range reached 1.29% of spot in the following hour, up from 0.42% in the hour before.
The release fell five days before the Federal Reserve's March policy decision, a window in which Personal Income prints have produced a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across eighteen observations. The 1.28x outcome therefore fell short of the pattern normally associated with that timing. Traders reviewing the record may conclude that proximity to a policy meeting does not guarantee an outsized move when the broader data cluster itself elicits limited attention.
How it compares
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.63 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.28x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 72464.50 | 72358.14 | 72442.18 | 0.04% | 0.15% | 0.07% | 24 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 72631.53 | 72358.14 | 72399.48 | -0.02% | 0.38% | 0.13% | 163 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 72631.53 | 72330.67 | 72419.41 | 0.01% | 0.41% | 0.22% | 213 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 72631.53 | 72330.67 | 72342.09 | -0.10% | 0.41% | 0.25% | 249 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 72884.68 | 72330.67 | 72784.73 | 0.51% | 0.76% | 0.41% | 874 BTC |
| 1 hour | 73264.17 | 72330.67 | 73023.17 | 0.84% | 1.27% | 0.42% | 2,490 BTC |
| 2 hours | 73897.00 | 72330.67 | 73738.52 | 1.80% | 2.12% | 0.51% | 6,248 BTC |
| 4 hours | 73913.74 | 71154.54 | 71393.26 | -1.43% | 3.73% | 1.38% | 13,283 BTC |
| 6 hours | 73913.74 | 70841.23 | 71195.34 | -1.71% | 4.16% | 1.92% | 16,794 BTC |
| 8 hours | 73913.74 | 71154.54 | 71393.26 | -0.27% | 3.73% | 1.44% | 18,228 BTC |
| 12 hours | 73913.74 | 70559.02 | 70916.78 | -2.11% | 4.54% | 2.22% | 20,981 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.28x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 0.84x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.00x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.01x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.12x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 2.39x | 1.52x | Strong |
| TRON | 1.00x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 2.10x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 0.80x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 0.00x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.39x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.31x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.55x | 1.55x | Ordinary |
| Litecoin | 1.14x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | Not measured | 1.32x | - |
| Shiba Inu | 2.56x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 1.47x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 0.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.21x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.22x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.00x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.30x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.93x | 1.60x | Ordinary |
| Filecoin | 1.00x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 1.28x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.