Measured by Clometrix
Polkadot's volatility ratio was 1.99x, against 1.50x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 8.71x, against a typical 2.12x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Polkadot moved
Polkadot was at $5.420 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.37% lower, and an hour later 1.48% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.03% of its price, against 1.11% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 1 December 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.7% for October 2022, against 0.6% in September 2022. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Polkadot about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.52x across 17, against 1.49x across 51. This one came out 13 days before the Federal Reserve's 14 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.99x compares with 1.52x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 68 Personal Income releases since 2021, Polkadot's median volatility ratio is 1.50x.
How it compares
Across 68 Personal Income releases since 2021, Polkadot's usual price swing is 1.50x. This one was 1.33 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 1.50x. Thick line: this release, 1.99x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 5.44 | 5.41 | 5.42 | 0.00% | 0.55% | 0.18% | 65,402 DOT |
| 5 minutes | 5.44 | 5.41 | 5.44 | 0.37% | 0.55% | 0.18% | 133,251 DOT |
| 10 minutes | 5.44 | 5.41 | 5.43 | 0.18% | 0.55% | 0.18% | 203,120 DOT |
| 15 minutes | 5.44 | 5.40 | 5.40 | -0.37% | 0.74% | 0.37% | 241,663 DOT |
| 30 minutes | 5.44 | 5.33 | 5.37 | -0.93% | 2.02% | 0.55% | 505,028 DOT |
| 1 hour | 5.44 | 5.33 | 5.34 | -1.50% | 2.02% | 1.10% | 741,241 DOT |
| 2 hours | 5.44 | 5.32 | 5.35 | -1.31% | 2.21% | 1.29% | 1.145M DOT |
| 4 hours | 5.44 | 5.32 | 5.37 | -0.93% | 2.21% | 1.47% | 1.592M DOT |
| 6 hours | 5.44 | 5.32 | 5.39 | -0.56% | 2.21% | 1.47% | 1.78M DOT |
| 8 hours | 5.44 | 5.32 | 5.37 | 0.00% | 2.21% | 1.47% | 2.153M DOT |
| 12 hours | 5.48 | 5.32 | 5.44 | 0.37% | 2.92% | 1.47% | 2.569M DOT |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 7.47x | 2.03x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 5.10x | 1.77x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 3.90x | 1.81x | Exceptional |
| BNB | 2.41x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Solana | 2.27x | 1.57x | Strong |
| Dogecoin | 3.48x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 2.70x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Cardano | 4.86x | 1.90x | Exceptional |
| Chainlink | 2.51x | 1.62x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.99x | 1.69x | Exceptional |
| Hedera | 1.99x | 1.51x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 1.80x | 1.55x | Ordinary |
| Litecoin | 2.66x | 1.64x | Strong |
| Shiba Inu | 2.32x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 1.66x | 1.49x | Ordinary |
| Polkadot | 1.99x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Aave | 2.32x | 1.58x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.00x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Aptos | 2.98x | 1.73x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 2.41x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.16x | 1.60x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 2.48x | 1.51x | Strong |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 1.99x a lot?
For a Personal Income release it is strong: the usual is 1.50x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Polkadot moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.