ETH Volatility Analysis for Personal Income, 1st December 2022

Data Analysis

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 5.10x, against 1.80x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.72x, against a typical 2.15x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $1,286.57 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.12% lower, and an hour later 1.11% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.36% of its price, against 0.44% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 1 December 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.7% for October 2022, against 0.6% in September 2022. Personal income is rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 13 days before the Federal Reserve's 14 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 5.10x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.

What it means

Ethereum posted an exceptional reaction to the Personal Income release, with volatility reaching 5.10x against the 1.80x median recorded across 69 releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 6.72x compared with the typical 2.15x. The price sat at $1,286.57 at publication. It fell 0.12 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 1.11 percent after one hour. The high-to-low range in the subsequent hour measured 2.36 percent of price, against 0.44 percent beforehand.

The Bureau of Economic Analysis issued the October figures at 8:30 AM EST on 1 December 2022. Personal income rose 0.7 percent against 0.6 percent in September. The release arrived together with Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures. The measured response therefore reflects the combined impact of the group.

Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Federal Reserve decision have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum, little different from the 1.77x median at other times. This print landed thirteen days before the 14 December meeting. Its 5.10x ratio therefore exceeded the level associated with that scheduling window.

Traders may observe that the historical record shows no material difference in median volatility between pre-decision and non-pre-decision instances of this event. Individual releases can still produce substantially larger moves than either benchmark.

About Personal Income and Outlays

Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.

ETH-USDT

Ethereum

Open

1,285.65

1,281.19

24h Change

-4.46 (-0.35%)

24h High

1,299.90

24h Low

1,262.77

24h Volume

415,340 ETH

US Personal Income and Outlays

Bureau of Economic Analysis

1st December, 2022, 8:30AM Timezone: America/New York

Chart Data from Binance

Observations

Time	Open	High	Low	Close	Change	Amplitude	Volume

1 Minute
Before	1288.32	1288.54	1286.56	1286.56	-0.14%	0.15%	151 ETH
During	1286.57	1299.90	1282.01	1292.76	0.48%	1.38%	7,722 ETH

5 Minutes
Before	1287.84	1289.09	1286.56	1286.56	-0.10%	0.20%	797 ETH
During	1286.57	1299.90	1282.01	1293.08	0.50%	1.38%	14,335 ETH

10 Minutes
Before	1285.96	1289.09	1285.84	1286.56	0.05%	0.25%	1,525 ETH
During	1286.57	1299.90	1282.01	1290.93	0.34%	1.38%	18,661 ETH

15 Minutes
Before	1286.96	1289.09	1285.82	1286.56	-0.03%	0.25%	2,226 ETH
During	1286.57	1299.90	1282.01	1285.04	-0.12%	1.38%	21,301 ETH

30 Minutes
Before	1288.44	1291.43	1285.82	1286.56	-0.15%	0.43%	7,096 ETH
During	1286.57	1299.90	1269.49	1279.05	-0.59%	2.34%	48,003 ETH

1 Hour
Before	1286.21	1291.43	1285.82	1286.56	0.03%	0.43%	14,832 ETH
During	1286.57	1299.90	1269.49	1272.23	-1.13%	2.34%	62,649 ETH

2 Hours
Before	1279.66	1291.43	1279.46	1286.56	0.54%	0.93%	40,152 ETH
During	1286.57	1299.90	1262.77	1267.36	-1.52%	2.86%	107,663 ETH

4 Hours
Before	1279.71	1291.43	1277.58	1286.56	0.53%	1.07%	76,736 ETH
During	1286.57	1299.90	1262.77	1273.93	-0.99%	2.86%	138,948 ETH

6 Hours
Before	1281.22	1291.43	1277.28	1286.56	0.42%	1.10%	109,374 ETH
During	1286.57	1299.90	1262.77	1276.07	-0.82%	2.86%	156,794 ETH

8 Hours
Before	1285.65	1291.00	1276.13	1279.70	-0.46%	1.15%	124,324 ETH
During	1279.71	1299.90	1262.77	1273.93	-0.45%	2.86%	215,685 ETH

12 Hours
Before	1285.65	1291.43	1276.13	1286.56	0.07%	1.18%	201,061 ETH
During	1286.57	1299.90	1262.77	1281.19	-0.42%	2.86%	214,279 ETH