Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 7.47x, against 2.03x for a typical Personal Income release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 5.08x, against a typical 2.52x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $17,131.84 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.58% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.04% of its price, against 0.25% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 1 December 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Income and Outlays came in at 0.7% for October 2022, against 0.6% in September 2022. Personal income is rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims, Personal Consumption Expenditures and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Personal Income releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out 13 days before the Federal Reserve's 14 December rate decision. Its own ratio of 7.47x compares with 2.13x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin's reaction to the 1 December 2022 Personal Income release stands out as exceptional. The volatility ratio reached 7.47x in the quarter hour after the print, more than three times the 2.09x median recorded across 69 releases since 2021. Volume expanded to 5.08x against a typical 2.55x. Bitcoin opened the interval at $17,131.84, remained flat after fifteen minutes, and sat 0.58 percent lower after sixty minutes, with an intraday range of 2.04 percent compared with 0.25 percent beforehand.
Personal income rose 0.7 percent month-over-month for October against 0.6 percent in September. It fell thirteen days before the Federal Reserve's December rate decision. Releases in that window have shown a median volatility ratio of 2.13x since 2021, yet this instance reached 7.47x, exceeding the timing pattern.
Traders reviewing the record will note that the largest moves in this event have clustered around periods of elevated policy sensitivity without a consistent directional signal. The data show only what coincided with the print, not what produced the price action. A similar pre-decision release may generate comparable volatility, though the median across all 69 observations remains 2.09x.
How it compares
Across 69 Personal Income releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 3.69 times the usual.
Thin line: Personal Income's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 7.47x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 17324.00 | 17091.85 | 17234.53 | 0.60% | 1.34% | 0.06% | 2,374 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 17324.00 | 17091.85 | 17212.66 | 0.47% | 1.34% | 0.09% | 5,328 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 17324.00 | 17091.85 | 17191.26 | 0.35% | 1.34% | 0.14% | 7,692 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 17324.00 | 17091.85 | 17133.61 | 0.01% | 1.34% | 0.15% | 9,757 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 17324.00 | 16974.44 | 17088.86 | -0.25% | 2.02% | 0.20% | 19,184 BTC |
| 1 hour | 17324.00 | 16974.44 | 17032.67 | -0.58% | 2.02% | 0.25% | 28,707 BTC |
| 2 hours | 17324.00 | 16926.00 | 16949.74 | -1.07% | 2.30% | 0.53% | 49,958 BTC |
| 4 hours | 17324.00 | 16895.02 | 16968.91 | -0.96% | 2.48% | 0.66% | 73,918 BTC |
| 6 hours | 17324.00 | 16895.02 | 16930.58 | -1.19% | 2.48% | 0.66% | 88,351 BTC |
| 8 hours | 17324.00 | 16895.02 | 16968.91 | -0.77% | 2.48% | 0.65% | 108,349 BTC |
| 12 hours | 17324.00 | 16855.01 | 16990.36 | -0.83% | 2.71% | 0.74% | 133,279 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Personal Income | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 7.47x | 2.03x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 5.10x | 1.77x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 3.90x | 1.81x | Exceptional |
| BNB | 2.41x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Solana | 2.27x | 1.57x | Strong |
| Dogecoin | 3.48x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 2.70x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Cardano | 4.86x | 1.90x | Exceptional |
| Chainlink | 2.51x | 1.62x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.99x | 1.69x | Exceptional |
| Hedera | 1.99x | 1.51x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 1.80x | 1.55x | Ordinary |
| Litecoin | 2.66x | 1.64x | Strong |
| Shiba Inu | 2.32x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 1.66x | 1.49x | Ordinary |
| Polkadot | 1.99x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Aave | 2.32x | 1.58x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.00x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Aptos | 2.98x | 1.73x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 2.41x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.16x | 1.60x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 2.48x | 1.51x | Strong |
What is the Personal Income and Outlays?
Personal Income measures the change in the total value of income received from all sources by consumers. Income is closely correlated with consumer spending, which accounts for a majority of overall economic activity.Questions about this page
Is 7.47x a lot?
For a Personal Income release it is exceptional: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Personal Income do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Personal Income releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.