The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 13 March 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for January 2026, against 0.3% in December 2025. Prices are rising at the same pace as before.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 0.84x, against 1.79x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.31x, against a typical 2.13x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,130.16 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 2.48% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.37% of its price, against 0.94% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 18 March rate decision. Its own ratio of 0.84x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Ethereum posted a volatility ratio of 0.84x in the quarter hour after the data, well below the 1.80x median observed for PCE events since 2021, while volume rose only 1.31x against a typical 2.15x. Both readings fall below the 1.5x threshold that marks any measurable reaction.
Price movement stayed correspondingly contained. Ethereum opened the interval at $2,130.16, remained flat fifteen minutes later and stood 2.48 percent higher after one hour, its hourly range expanding to 3.37 percent from 0.94 percent beforehand.
The outcome is notable because the release landed five days before the March FOMC decision. PCE prints in that window have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum across eighteen prior cases. The observed 0.84x therefore sits materially below both the event norm and the level recorded for comparable pre-decision releases. Traders may conclude that clustered data near a policy meeting can still generate limited volatility when the figures themselves align closely with expectations. Each subsequent PCE release will need evaluation against its own market backdrop.
How it compares
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.79x. This one was 0.47 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.79x. Thick line: this release, 0.84x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 2133.40 | 2129.28 | 2132.32 | 0.10% | 0.19% | 0.06% | 468 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 2135.69 | 2129.28 | 2129.92 | -0.01% | 0.30% | 0.22% | 2,128 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 2135.69 | 2128.14 | 2131.50 | 0.06% | 0.35% | 0.52% | 4,044 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 2135.69 | 2128.14 | 2129.36 | -0.04% | 0.35% | 0.52% | 4,586 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 2153.17 | 2128.14 | 2146.63 | 0.77% | 1.16% | 0.82% | 24,869 ETH |
| 1 hour | 2200.00 | 2128.14 | 2183.00 | 2.42% | 3.27% | 0.93% | 80,791 ETH |
| 2 hours | 2209.03 | 2128.14 | 2196.37 | 3.01% | 3.66% | 0.93% | 134,452 ETH |
| 4 hours | 2209.03 | 2111.36 | 2119.73 | -0.49% | 4.42% | 1.97% | 244,924 ETH |
| 6 hours | 2209.03 | 2090.28 | 2103.85 | -1.25% | 5.38% | 2.25% | 295,814 ETH |
| 8 hours | 2209.03 | 2096.04 | 2119.73 | 1.00% | 5.11% | 2.74% | 314,088 ETH |
| 12 hours | 2209.03 | 2078.50 | 2092.05 | -1.82% | 5.91% | 2.74% | 356,012 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.28x | 2.03x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 0.84x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.00x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.01x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.12x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 2.39x | 1.52x | Strong |
| TRON | 1.00x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 2.10x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 0.80x | 1.62x | Quiet |
| Sui | 0.00x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.39x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.31x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.55x | 1.55x | Ordinary |
| Litecoin | 1.14x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | Not measured | 1.32x | - |
| Shiba Inu | 2.56x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 1.47x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 0.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.21x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.22x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.00x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.30x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.93x | 1.60x | Ordinary |
| Filecoin | 1.00x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 0.84x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.