Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 2.93x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.42x, against a typical 2.11x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,907.78 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.07% lower, and an hour later 0.21% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.01% of its price, against 0.89% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 April 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.1% for March 2023, against 0.3% in February 2023. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 3 May rate decision. Its own ratio of 2.93x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.79x.
What it means
This PCE release generated a strong reaction in Ethereum, lifting the volatility ratio to 2.93x against the 1.80x median recorded across PCE prints since 2021 and expanding volume to 4.42x from a typical 2.15x. The outcome exceeded the 1.86x median seen for PCE releases that fall in the two weeks before a Federal Reserve decision.
Ethereum traded at $1,907.78 at the 8:30 AM release and showed only modest price movement, declining 0.07 percent after fifteen minutes and 0.21 percent after one hour. The high-to-low range in the following hour reached 1.01 percent of price, up from 0.89 percent in the prior hour. The print arrived alongside Personal Income and Core PCE data and five days before the May 3 Federal Reserve decision.
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021 the median volatility ratio for Ethereum stands at 1.80x, so the measured response qualified as strong relative to the event's established pattern. Traders may note that timing near a policy meeting did not by itself produce outsized moves in the historical record for this coin and event.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 1.66 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 2.93x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 1909.15 | 1903.41 | 1906.60 | -0.06% | 0.30% | 0.02% | 1,573 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 1915.31 | 1902.06 | 1903.87 | -0.21% | 0.69% | 0.11% | 9,454 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 1915.31 | 1902.06 | 1905.77 | -0.11% | 0.69% | 0.18% | 11,297 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 1915.31 | 1902.06 | 1906.53 | -0.07% | 0.69% | 0.22% | 13,158 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 1915.31 | 1897.42 | 1899.00 | -0.46% | 0.93% | 0.63% | 18,923 ETH |
| 1 hour | 1915.31 | 1896.03 | 1903.73 | -0.21% | 1.01% | 0.89% | 25,258 ETH |
| 2 hours | 1915.31 | 1880.32 | 1895.56 | -0.64% | 1.83% | 1.05% | 60,935 ETH |
| 4 hours | 1915.31 | 1873.94 | 1885.62 | -1.18% | 2.16% | 1.16% | 136,374 ETH |
| 6 hours | 1915.31 | 1873.94 | 1887.01 | -1.10% | 2.16% | 1.50% | 161,311 ETH |
| 8 hours | 1917.35 | 1873.94 | 1885.62 | -1.53% | 2.26% | 1.13% | 192,739 ETH |
| 12 hours | 1915.31 | 1873.94 | 1890.59 | -0.91% | 2.16% | 1.50% | 218,920 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.95x | 2.03x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 2.93x | 1.77x | Strong |
| XRP | 1.50x | 1.81x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 2.00x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 1.63x | 1.57x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 2.54x | 1.52x | Strong |
| TRON | 2.37x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Cardano | 2.70x | 1.90x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 1.99x | 1.62x | Ordinary |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.31x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 2.00x | 1.51x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 2.35x | 1.55x | Strong |
| Litecoin | 2.58x | 1.64x | Strong |
| Shiba Inu | 2.01x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 2.98x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 2.02x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Aave | 1.68x | 1.58x | Ordinary |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.01x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 2.00x | 1.73x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 1.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.45x | 1.60x | Exceptional |
| Filecoin | 2.01x | 1.51x | Strong |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 2.93x a lot?
For a PCE release it is strong: the usual is 1.77x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.