How Ethereum reacted to the Personal Consumption Expenditures on 26 May 2023

Measured by Clometrix

Ethereum's volatility ratio was 5.38x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 6.63x, against a typical 2.11x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Ethereum moved

Ethereum was at $1,815.82 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.2% lower, and an hour later 0.12% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.81% of its price, against 0.32% in the hour before.

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 26 May 2023 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for April 2023, against 0.1% in March 2023. Prices are rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.72x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 5.38x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.79x.

What it means

Volume expanded to 6.63 times its baseline, well above the usual 2.15 times. The price itself showed only modest shifts from the $1,815.82 level at release, falling 0.2 percent within fifteen minutes before recovering to a 0.12 percent gain after an hour.

The high-to-low range in the following hour reached 0.81 percent, more than double the 0.32 percent seen beforehand.

Timing placed the release 18 days before the next Federal Reserve decision, outside the two-week window where median volatility has historically stood at 1.86 times. Yet the observed 5.38 times ratio exceeded even the 1.77 times median for non-proximate releases, indicating the move surpassed what the calendar alone would imply. Traders monitoring upcoming PCE prints may note that strong reactions can occur regardless of proximity to policy meetings, though the record shows only coincidence rather than predictive power for future instances.

What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Every PCE release for Ethereum