The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 22 December 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.0% for November 2023, against 0.0% in October 2023. Prices were flat.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $43,665.99 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.25% higher, and an hour later 0.56% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.91% of its price, against 0.38% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.16x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.66x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.16x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the December 2023 PCE release. The volatility ratio reached 2.16x against the event median of 2.09x since 2021. Volume rose only 1.66x, below the typical 2.55x for the release. The price stood at $43,665.99 at 8:30 AM EST, moved 0.25 percent higher within fifteen minutes and 0.56 percent lower within one hour, while the high-low range expanded to 0.91 percent from 0.38 percent in the preceding hour.
It fell 39 days before the next Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has produced larger Bitcoin moves in the past. Releases inside that window have shown a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18 observations, compared with 1.81x across the remaining 51. This instance still exceeded the 1.81x benchmark for non-proximate releases. The lower volume ratio relative to the event norm suggests participation remained subdued even though price movement stayed within normal bounds for the release. Future instances of the same data point can be assessed against these same benchmarks without assuming any change in typical magnitude.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 1.06 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 2.16x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 43666.00 | 43620.01 | 43625.53 | -0.09% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 47 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 43666.00 | 43596.08 | 43657.12 | -0.02% | 0.16% | 0.08% | 139 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 43762.00 | 43596.08 | 43758.81 | 0.21% | 0.38% | 0.17% | 273 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 43809.40 | 43596.08 | 43775.38 | 0.25% | 0.49% | 0.17% | 441 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 43809.40 | 43596.08 | 43693.99 | 0.06% | 0.49% | 0.30% | 898 BTC |
| 1 hour | 43809.40 | 43412.54 | 43423.57 | -0.56% | 0.91% | 0.38% | 1,882 BTC |
| 2 hours | 43809.40 | 43412.54 | 43634.00 | -0.07% | 0.91% | 0.77% | 3,307 BTC |
| 4 hours | 43809.40 | 43412.54 | 43631.69 | -0.08% | 0.91% | 0.77% | 5,354 BTC |
| 6 hours | 43992.00 | 43412.54 | 43695.95 | 0.07% | 1.32% | 0.98% | 8,497 BTC |
| 8 hours | 43839.22 | 43412.54 | 43631.69 | 0.08% | 0.97% | 2.11% | 9,943 BTC |
| 12 hours | 44048.16 | 43412.54 | 43748.97 | 0.19% | 1.44% | 2.11% | 14,115 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.16x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 1.38x | 1.77x | Quiet |
| XRP | 1.13x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.25x | 1.75x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.44x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Dogecoin | 2.33x | 1.52x | Strong |
| TRON | 0.92x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.42x | 1.90x | Quiet |
| Chainlink | 1.78x | 1.62x | Ordinary |
| Sui | 1.42x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.12x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.04x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.45x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.34x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 2.55x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 1.24x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.98x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Aave | 0.87x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.75x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.29x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.00x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 2.22x | 1.60x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 1.26x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 2.16x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.