How Bitcoin reacted to the Personal Consumption Expenditures on 22 December 2023

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 22 December 2023 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.0% for November 2023, against 0.0% in October 2023. Prices were flat.

It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $43,665.99 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.25% higher, and an hour later 0.56% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.91% of its price, against 0.38% in the hour before.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.16x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.66x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

What made it matter

Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 2.16x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.

Its record

Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.

What it means

Bitcoin registered an ordinary reaction to the December 2023 PCE release. The volatility ratio reached 2.16x against the event median of 2.09x since 2021. Volume rose only 1.66x, below the typical 2.55x for the release. The price stood at $43,665.99 at 8:30 AM EST, moved 0.25 percent higher within fifteen minutes and 0.56 percent lower within one hour, while the high-low range expanded to 0.91 percent from 0.38 percent in the preceding hour.

It fell 39 days before the next Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window that has produced larger Bitcoin moves in the past. Releases inside that window have shown a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18 observations, compared with 1.81x across the remaining 51. This instance still exceeded the 1.81x benchmark for non-proximate releases. The lower volume ratio relative to the event norm suggests participation remained subdued even though price movement stayed within normal bounds for the release. Future instances of the same data point can be assessed against these same benchmarks without assuming any change in typical magnitude.

What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?

Every PCE release for Bitcoin