The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 22 January 2026 at 10:00 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.2% for October 2025, against 0.3% in September 2025. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $89,088.60 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.19% higher, and an hour later 0.1% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.04% of its price, against 0.79% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.17x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.44x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one came out 6 days before the Federal Reserve's 28 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 2.17x compares with 2.13x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
The cryptocurrency rose 0.19 percent in the first fifteen minutes and finished the hour 0.1 percent lower. Its high-to-low range expanded only modestly to 1.04 percent from 0.79 percent beforehand. The measured volatility ratio of 2.17x sat close to the 2.09x median recorded across 69 prior PCE prints since 2021, while the volume ratio of 3.44x exceeded its 2.55x counterpart yet still aligned with the event's usual profile.
The release arrived six days before the Federal Reserve's January policy decision, a window that has historically produced slightly larger Bitcoin moves. PCE prints in that interval carry a median volatility ratio of 2.13x. The observed 2.17x therefore matched the pattern expected from timing alone rather than signaling any departure.
Because the figures coincided with Personal Income and Core PCE data, the recorded reaction reflects the combined effect and for traders preparing for the next PCE release the episode reinforces that proximity to a Federal Reserve meeting remains the more reliable guide to volatility magnitude than the headline surprise itself.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 1.07 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 2.17x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 89215.36 | 89007.51 | 89196.14 | 0.12% | 0.23% | 0.16% | 53 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 89325.63 | 89007.51 | 89318.58 | 0.26% | 0.36% | 0.34% | 143 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 89325.63 | 89007.51 | 89279.99 | 0.21% | 0.36% | 0.43% | 202 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 89383.15 | 89007.51 | 89258.84 | 0.19% | 0.42% | 0.53% | 258 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 89383.15 | 88620.75 | 88658.05 | -0.49% | 0.85% | 0.78% | 729 BTC |
| 1 hour | 89445.24 | 88515.37 | 89000.01 | -0.10% | 1.04% | 0.78% | 1,329 BTC |
| 2 hours | 89445.24 | 88515.37 | 89054.06 | -0.04% | 1.04% | 1.44% | 2,150 BTC |
| 4 hours | 89797.50 | 88515.37 | 89333.94 | 0.27% | 1.43% | 1.44% | 3,143 BTC |
| 6 hours | 89946.13 | 88515.37 | 89409.72 | 0.36% | 1.59% | 1.44% | 3,972 BTC |
| 8 hours | 90340.00 | 88515.37 | 89333.94 | -0.83% | 2.02% | 0.57% | 5,668 BTC |
| 12 hours | 89979.97 | 88515.37 | 89663.48 | 0.64% | 1.63% | 1.44% | 5,624 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.17x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 1.86x | 1.77x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 1.02x | 1.81x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.86x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 1.78x | 1.57x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 1.51x | 1.52x | Ordinary |
| TRON | 1.37x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.84x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 1.50x | 1.62x | Ordinary |
| Sui | 1.02x | 1.53x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.34x | 1.69x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.17x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.23x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.85x | 1.64x | Ordinary |
| Gram | 1.03x | 1.32x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.68x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 1.02x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.01x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.42x | 1.58x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.18x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.00x | 1.43x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.02x | 1.73x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.99x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.30x | 1.60x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 1.02x | 1.51x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 2.17x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.