Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 4.93x, against 2.09x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 17.68x, against a typical 2.55x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $67,202.01 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.86% lower, and an hour later 0.34% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.4% of its price, against 0.91% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 20 February 2026 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for December 2025, against 0.2% in October 2025. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 4.93x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.09x.
What it means
Exceptional Reaction Outside the Usual Window
Bitcoin recorded an exceptional reaction to the 20 February 2026 PCE release, with volatility reaching 4.93x the level of a typical quarter hour that day. This figure more than doubled the 2.09x median observed across 69 PCE releases since 2021. Volume expanded even more sharply to 17.68x, well above the 2.55x typical reading. The move occurred alongside the GDP report, Personal Income and Core PCE figures, all published at the same 8:30 AM EST moment.
Bitcoin stood at $67,202.01 at release and fell 0.86 percent within fifteen minutes. The hourly high-to-low range widened to 1.4 percent of price, compared with 0.91 percent in the preceding hour.
Releases within two weeks of a Federal Reserve decision have carried a median volatility ratio of 2.13x since 2021, versus 1.81x at other times. This event arrived 25 days before the March 2026 decision, yet still produced a ratio of 4.93x. The outcome illustrates that clustered data arrivals can generate outsized moves even when timing relative to policy meetings would normally suggest otherwise. Traders preparing for the next PCE release may watch both the surprise component and any concurrent reports, because the record shows that the largest volatility spikes have sometimes occurred away from the immediate pre-decision period.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.09x. This one was 2.36 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.09x. Thick line: this release, 4.93x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 67220.88 | 67148.61 | 67157.71 | -0.07% | 0.11% | 0.11% | 16 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 67220.88 | 66833.45 | 66881.02 | -0.48% | 0.58% | 0.36% | 177 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 67220.88 | 66280.20 | 66511.58 | -1.04% | 1.40% | 0.37% | 1,904 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 67220.88 | 66280.20 | 66624.09 | -0.87% | 1.40% | 0.40% | 2,631 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 67220.88 | 66280.20 | 66801.62 | -0.60% | 1.40% | 0.83% | 6,487 BTC |
| 1 hour | 67220.88 | 66280.20 | 66976.34 | -0.34% | 1.40% | 0.90% | 9,465 BTC |
| 2 hours | 68083.98 | 66280.20 | 67453.71 | 0.37% | 2.65% | 1.34% | 13,989 BTC |
| 4 hours | 68083.98 | 66280.20 | 67031.71 | -0.25% | 2.65% | 1.95% | 17,180 BTC |
| 6 hours | 68083.98 | 66280.20 | 67625.23 | 0.63% | 2.65% | 1.95% | 24,065 BTC |
| 8 hours | 68318.39 | 66280.20 | 67031.71 | -1.74% | 2.98% | 1.63% | 20,690 BTC |
| 12 hours | 68233.99 | 66280.20 | 67856.59 | 0.96% | 2.86% | 1.95% | 27,562 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 4.93x | 2.06x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 3.68x | 1.79x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 2.06x | 1.70x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 3.92x | 1.78x | Exceptional |
| Solana | 3.44x | 1.58x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 4.69x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 2.33x | 1.42x | Strong |
| Cardano | 3.82x | 1.88x | Exceptional |
| Chainlink | 3.31x | 1.61x | Exceptional |
| Sui | 3.55x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.42x | 1.67x | Strong |
| Hedera | 3.44x | 1.48x | Exceptional |
| Avalanche | 3.57x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 3.49x | 1.64x | Exceptional |
| Gram | 1.02x | 1.29x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 3.70x | 1.74x | Exceptional |
| Uniswap | 3.64x | 1.48x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 1.04x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Aave | 8.44x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Bittensor | 3.19x | 1.68x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.08x | 1.37x | Strong |
| Aptos | 4.61x | 1.70x | Exceptional |
| Internet Computer | 3.06x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.04x | 1.56x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 3.06x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 4.93x a lot?
For a PCE release it is exceptional: the usual is 2.09x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.