Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 5.50x, against 1.80x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 10.04x, against a typical 2.15x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $1,493.72 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.23% higher, and an hour later 2.56% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 3.86% of its price, against 0.84% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 October 2022 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for September 2022, against 0.3% in August 2022. Prices are rising at the same pace as before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 18, against 1.77x across 51. This one came out 5 days before the Federal Reserve's 2 November rate decision. Its own ratio of 5.50x compares with 1.86x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.80x.
What it means
Ethereum posted an exceptional reaction to the October 2022 PCE release. Volatility reached 5.50x the typical quarter-hour level for this event since 2021, more than three times the median 1.80x recorded across 69 prior releases. Volume expanded 10.04x against a usual 2.15x. The price stood at $1,493.72 at 8:30 AM and rose 1.23 percent within fifteen minutes and 2.56 percent within the hour, while the high-low range widened to 3.86 percent from 0.84 percent beforehand.
The figures themselves showed no change. The release fell five days before the November FOMC decision. Pre-Fed PCE prints have historically produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum, virtually identical to the 1.77x median observed at other times. The 5.50x outcome therefore exceeded the pattern normally associated with proximity to a policy meeting. The record shows that even releases arriving close to Federal Reserve decisions rarely generate sustained moves unless accompanied by larger deviations in the data or simultaneous surprises in related indicators. This instance illustrates that timing alone does not determine magnitude.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.80x. This one was 3.05 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.80x. Thick line: this release, 5.50x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 1510.11 | 1479.82 | 1504.58 | 0.72% | 2.01% | 0.14% | 21,932 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 1517.55 | 1479.82 | 1506.95 | 0.88% | 2.49% | 0.28% | 40,173 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 1517.55 | 1479.82 | 1508.41 | 0.97% | 2.49% | 0.64% | 48,869 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 1517.55 | 1479.82 | 1512.06 | 1.21% | 2.49% | 0.64% | 55,514 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 1517.55 | 1479.82 | 1511.45 | 1.17% | 2.49% | 0.64% | 65,119 ETH |
| 1 hour | 1537.55 | 1479.82 | 1531.96 | 2.50% | 3.75% | 0.84% | 104,912 ETH |
| 2 hours | 1549.94 | 1479.82 | 1534.45 | 2.65% | 4.52% | 1.16% | 189,091 ETH |
| 4 hours | 1560.00 | 1479.82 | 1552.36 | 3.78% | 5.14% | 1.23% | 267,919 ETH |
| 6 hours | 1573.10 | 1479.82 | 1552.96 | 3.81% | 5.93% | 2.05% | 357,776 ETH |
| 8 hours | 1560.00 | 1479.82 | 1552.36 | 3.59% | 5.14% | 2.67% | 356,077 ETH |
| 12 hours | 1574.90 | 1479.82 | 1551.88 | 3.75% | 6.04% | 2.67% | 458,172 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 5.60x | 2.06x | Exceptional |
| Ethereum | 5.50x | 1.79x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 3.93x | 1.70x | Exceptional |
| BNB | 2.89x | 1.78x | Strong |
| Solana | 3.65x | 1.58x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 2.07x | 1.51x | Strong |
| TRON | 3.46x | 1.42x | Exceptional |
| Cardano | 3.72x | 1.88x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 3.71x | 1.61x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.53x | 1.67x | Exceptional |
| Hedera | 3.02x | 1.48x | Exceptional |
| Avalanche | 2.81x | 1.55x | Strong |
| Litecoin | 4.53x | 1.64x | Exceptional |
| Shiba Inu | 2.56x | 1.74x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 3.15x | 1.48x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 3.02x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Aave | 3.56x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| NEAR Protocol | 3.16x | 1.37x | Exceptional |
| Aptos | 1.94x | 1.70x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 2.69x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 3.93x | 1.56x | Exceptional |
| Filecoin | 2.37x | 1.50x | Strong |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 5.50x a lot?
For a PCE release it is exceptional: the usual is 1.80x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.