Measured by Clometrix
Ethereum's volatility ratio was 3.08x, against 1.77x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 4.07x, against a typical 2.11x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Ethereum moved
Ethereum was at $2,380.23 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 1.65% higher, and an hour later 2.06% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.55% of its price, against 1.59% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 January 2022 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.6% for December 2021, against 0.7% in November 2021. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Ethereum about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.86x across 17, against 1.72x across 52. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 26 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 3.08x compares with 1.72x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's median volatility ratio is 1.77x.
What it means
Ethereum showed a strong reaction to the January 2022 PCE release, with its volatility ratio reaching 3.08x compared with the 1.80x median across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded to 4.07x against the typical 2.15x, confirming the move exceeded the event's usual footprint. Price rose 1.65 percent in the first fifteen minutes and 2.06 percent within the hour, while the hourly range widened to 2.55 percent from 1.59 percent beforehand.
The release arrived two days after the Federal Reserve's January rate decision and forty-six days before the next scheduled meeting. Releases in the two weeks before policy meetings have produced a median volatility ratio of 1.86x for Ethereum, little different from the 1.77x median at other times. This instance's 3.08x reading therefore stood out relative to both the event's baseline and its timing as even outside the immediate pre-decision window a subdued inflation print can still generate outsized price action when it deviates from the recent trend.
The record supplies no forward expectation, only the observation that PCE releases have produced median volatility of 1.80x for Ethereum since 2021.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Ethereum's usual price swing is 1.77x. This one was 1.74 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 1.77x. Thick line: this release, 3.08x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 2399.28 | 2380.22 | 2395.95 | 0.66% | 0.79% | 0.17% | 1,491 ETH |
| 5 minutes | 2419.45 | 2380.22 | 2414.03 | 1.40% | 1.62% | 0.43% | 6,973 ETH |
| 10 minutes | 2436.91 | 2380.22 | 2432.67 | 2.16% | 2.33% | 0.64% | 14,668 ETH |
| 15 minutes | 2436.91 | 2380.22 | 2419.58 | 1.63% | 2.33% | 0.80% | 17,245 ETH |
| 30 minutes | 2436.91 | 2380.22 | 2430.45 | 2.07% | 2.33% | 1.09% | 21,973 ETH |
| 1 hour | 2440.95 | 2380.22 | 2429.19 | 2.02% | 2.49% | 1.58% | 30,465 ETH |
| 2 hours | 2440.95 | 2380.11 | 2417.46 | 1.54% | 2.49% | 1.96% | 69,956 ETH |
| 4 hours | 2492.26 | 2380.11 | 2464.01 | 3.40% | 4.50% | 2.27% | 125,491 ETH |
| 6 hours | 2492.26 | 2380.11 | 2447.00 | 2.73% | 4.50% | 2.83% | 151,420 ETH |
| 8 hours | 2492.26 | 2357.88 | 2464.01 | 2.31% | 5.39% | 4.61% | 188,287 ETH |
| 12 hours | 2585.89 | 2380.11 | 2536.83 | 6.17% | 7.96% | 4.70% | 270,845 ETH |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3.46x | 2.03x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 3.08x | 1.77x | Strong |
| XRP | 2.88x | 1.81x | Strong |
| BNB | 2.33x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Solana | 3.51x | 1.57x | Exceptional |
| Dogecoin | 2.36x | 1.52x | Strong |
| TRON | 2.28x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Cardano | 2.02x | 1.90x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 2.93x | 1.62x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 3.18x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 1.85x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
| Avalanche | 2.57x | 1.55x | Strong |
| Litecoin | 3.57x | 1.64x | Exceptional |
| Shiba Inu | 2.22x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 2.60x | 1.49x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 2.76x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Aave | 3.05x | 1.58x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.94x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 2.37x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 2.59x | 1.60x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 3.28x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 3.08x a lot?
For a PCE release it is strong: the usual is 1.77x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Ethereum moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.