The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 February 2025 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.4% for January 2025, against 0.3% in December 2024. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $80,747.93 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.93% higher, and an hour later 1.38% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 2.06% of its price, against 1.65% in the hour before.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.81x, against 2.03x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 2.48x, against a typical 2.52x. That is about what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 52. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.81x compares with 1.81x for those, about what its circumstances would suggest.
Its record
Across 70 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.06x.
What it means
Bitcoin rose 0.93 percent in the fifteen minutes after the release and 1.38 percent within the hour. Its high-to-low range widened to 2.06 percent of price from 1.65 percent in the prior hour. The measured volatility ratio of 1.81 times sat below the 2.09 times median recorded for PCE across 69 releases since 2021, while the volume ratio of 2.48 times matched the typical 2.55 times.
The print arrived eighteen days before the March Federal Reserve decision and therefore outside the two-week window in which PCE has historically produced larger Bitcoin moves. Releases in that window carry a median volatility ratio of 2.13 times, against 1.81 times for the fifty-one releases at other times. This release produced exactly the 1.81 times ratio that the timing alone would suggest.
Clometrix classifies the reaction as ordinary for PCE. The outcome aligns with the broader record that proximity to a policy decision has coincided with greater volatility more consistently than the size of the surprise itself. Traders watching the next PCE may note that its placement on the calendar relative to the Federal Open Market Committee remains the factor most associated with Bitcoin's response magnitude.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.03x. This one was 0.89 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.03x. Thick line: this release, 1.81x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 81500.00 | 80716.98 | 81295.84 | 0.67% | 0.96% | 0.20% | 345 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 81500.00 | 80716.98 | 81215.68 | 0.58% | 0.96% | 0.33% | 701 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 81764.94 | 80716.98 | 81339.80 | 0.73% | 1.28% | 0.61% | 1,210 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 81764.94 | 80716.98 | 81501.42 | 0.92% | 1.28% | 0.61% | 1,756 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 81764.94 | 80716.98 | 81512.42 | 0.94% | 1.28% | 0.96% | 2,465 BTC |
| 1 hour | 82380.51 | 80716.98 | 81864.59 | 1.36% | 2.02% | 1.63% | 4,443 BTC |
| 2 hours | 84330.00 | 80716.98 | 84311.88 | 4.23% | 4.28% | 1.63% | 10,291 BTC |
| 4 hours | 84920.00 | 80716.98 | 84179.86 | 4.08% | 4.95% | 2.29% | 16,820 BTC |
| 6 hours | 85120.00 | 80716.98 | 84498.44 | 4.44% | 5.17% | 3.87% | 21,182 BTC |
| 8 hours | 84920.00 | 79544.71 | 84179.86 | 4.47% | 6.33% | 5.99% | 25,547 BTC |
| 12 hours | 85120.00 | 80716.98 | 83981.12 | 3.85% | 5.17% | 5.99% | 27,166 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.81x | 2.03x | Ordinary |
| Ethereum | 2.15x | 1.77x | Ordinary |
| XRP | 2.50x | 1.81x | Strong |
| BNB | 2.05x | 1.75x | Ordinary |
| Solana | 1.80x | 1.57x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 2.36x | 1.52x | Strong |
| TRON | 1.72x | 1.43x | Ordinary |
| Cardano | 2.51x | 1.90x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 2.62x | 1.62x | Strong |
| Sui | 2.99x | 1.53x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.93x | 1.69x | Strong |
| Hedera | 2.69x | 1.51x | Strong |
| Avalanche | 2.34x | 1.55x | Strong |
| Litecoin | 2.14x | 1.64x | Strong |
| Gram | 2.41x | 1.32x | Strong |
| Shiba Inu | 2.43x | 1.75x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 2.43x | 1.49x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 2.48x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Aave | 2.27x | 1.58x | Strong |
| Bittensor | 2.87x | 1.68x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.33x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Aptos | 1.91x | 1.73x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 2.35x | 1.50x | Strong |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 2.51x | 1.60x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 2.64x | 1.51x | Strong |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.81x a lot?
For a PCE release it is ordinary: the usual is 2.03x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
What is PCE, and why does the Fed watch it?
PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The Federal Reserve measures its 2 percent inflation goal with the PCE price index. PCE, Core PCE and Personal Income are released together at 8:30 a.m. ET and share one reaction. Their median Bitcoin price swing since 2021 is 2.03x, which places them in Tier 2.
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The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.