The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 31 January 2025 at 8:30 AM EST. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.3% for December 2024, against 0.1% in November 2024. Prices are rising faster than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays and Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.46x, against 2.09x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.50x, against a typical 2.55x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $104,862.74 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.22% lower, and an hour later 0.13% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.45% of its price, against 0.46% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 51. This one came out 2 days after the Federal Reserve's 29 January rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.46x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the January 31 PCE release, with volatility reaching just 1.46x of a normal quarter-hour level against the 2.09x median recorded across PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded only 1.50x versus the typical 2.55x, confirming that activity remained close to baseline.
The price stood at $104,862.74 at the moment of the print and fell 0.22 percent within fifteen minutes.
The data arrived two days after the Federal Reserve's January 29 rate decision, outside the two-week pre-meeting window in which PCE releases have produced a 2.13x median volatility ratio. The observed 1.46x reading therefore sat below even the 1.81x median for releases occurring at other times. Traders following upcoming PCE prints may observe that releases positioned well after policy meetings have tended to coincide with subdued Bitcoin ranges relative to those nearer decision dates.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.09x. This one was 0.70 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.09x. Thick line: this release, 1.46x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 104939.99 | 104862.74 | 104939.99 | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 8 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 104939.99 | 104632.36 | 104661.75 | -0.19% | 0.29% | 0.10% | 128 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 104939.99 | 104551.09 | 104759.99 | -0.10% | 0.37% | 0.19% | 198 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 104939.99 | 104551.09 | 104635.84 | -0.22% | 0.37% | 0.19% | 231 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 104939.99 | 104551.09 | 104664.02 | -0.19% | 0.37% | 0.32% | 325 BTC |
| 1 hour | 104939.99 | 104470.58 | 104721.31 | -0.14% | 0.45% | 0.46% | 634 BTC |
| 2 hours | 105200.00 | 104106.00 | 105166.25 | 0.29% | 1.04% | 0.46% | 2,359 BTC |
| 4 hours | 106012.00 | 104106.00 | 104995.75 | 0.13% | 1.80% | 0.91% | 5,535 BTC |
| 6 hours | 106012.00 | 102138.80 | 102508.33 | -2.30% | 3.65% | 1.05% | 9,454 BTC |
| 8 hours | 106012.00 | 104080.10 | 104995.75 | 0.76% | 1.82% | 0.88% | 7,678 BTC |
| 12 hours | 106012.00 | 101560.00 | 102710.38 | -2.10% | 4.20% | 1.05% | 15,423 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.46x | 2.06x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.21x | 1.79x | Quiet |
| XRP | 1.99x | 1.70x | Ordinary |
| BNB | 1.22x | 1.78x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.50x | 1.58x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 1.93x | 1.51x | Ordinary |
| TRON | 0.84x | 1.42x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 1.98x | 1.88x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 1.72x | 1.61x | Ordinary |
| Sui | 1.30x | 1.52x | Quiet |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.59x | 1.67x | Ordinary |
| Hedera | 1.41x | 1.48x | Quiet |
| Avalanche | 1.24x | 1.55x | Quiet |
| Litecoin | 1.13x | 1.64x | Quiet |
| Gram | 1.50x | 1.29x | Ordinary |
| Shiba Inu | 2.27x | 1.74x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 1.95x | 1.48x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 0.97x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.21x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 0.97x | 1.68x | Quiet |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.64x | 1.37x | Ordinary |
| Aptos | 1.30x | 1.70x | Quiet |
| Internet Computer | 1.31x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.55x | 1.56x | Ordinary |
| Filecoin | 1.65x | 1.50x | Ordinary |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.46x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.