The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 28 May 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.4% for April 2026, against 0.7% in March 2026. Prices are still rising, but more slowly than before.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Gross Domestic Product Report, Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.12x, against 2.09x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 0.95x, against a typical 2.55x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $73,378.41 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.15% higher, and an hour later 0.3% lower. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.79% of its price, against 0.39% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 1.12x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a quiet reaction to the 28 May 2026 PCE release and the cluster of data that arrived with it. Volatility reached just 1.12x the level seen in an ordinary quarter hour that day, well below the 2.09x median recorded across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume stayed essentially flat at 0.95x, compared with a typical 2.55x. Clometrix classifies any reading below 1.5x as no reaction at all.
The release printed 0.4 percent for April, down from 0.7 percent in March. It came out 19 days before the June FOMC meeting, placing it outside the two-week window in which PCE has historically produced larger Bitcoin moves, with a median volatility ratio of 2.13x versus 1.81x at other times. The observed 1.12x therefore fell short of what the timing alone would have implied.
Bitcoin stood at $73,378.41 at the instant of the release. It rose 0.15 percent in the next fifteen minutes and finished the hour 0.3 percent lower, with a high-to-low range of 0.79 percent against 0.39 percent beforehand. The muted price action aligned with the low volatility and volume ratios, confirming that the combined data package passed largely unnoticed.
Traders reviewing the record will note that PCE prints farther from FOMC decisions have tended to generate smaller swings. The next release of this event will be assessed against that same pattern of timing and surprise size rather than against any fixed expectation.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.09x. This one was 0.54 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.09x. Thick line: this release, 1.12x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 73505.94 | 73378.41 | 73505.94 | 0.17% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 22 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 73543.67 | 73378.41 | 73475.13 | 0.13% | 0.22% | 0.19% | 56 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 73543.67 | 73354.03 | 73486.50 | 0.15% | 0.26% | 0.22% | 118 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 73543.67 | 73354.03 | 73487.27 | 0.15% | 0.26% | 0.23% | 153 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 73580.75 | 73354.03 | 73518.01 | 0.19% | 0.31% | 0.37% | 251 BTC |
| 1 hour | 73580.75 | 73000.00 | 73160.52 | -0.30% | 0.79% | 0.39% | 672 BTC |
| 2 hours | 73580.75 | 72582.82 | 72965.07 | -0.57% | 1.36% | 0.48% | 2,975 BTC |
| 4 hours | 73580.75 | 72582.82 | 73150.02 | -0.31% | 1.36% | 0.57% | 4,866 BTC |
| 6 hours | 73749.69 | 72582.82 | 73588.87 | 0.29% | 1.58% | 1.16% | 6,291 BTC |
| 8 hours | 73616.00 | 72582.82 | 73150.02 | -0.15% | 1.40% | 2.50% | 6,799 BTC |
| 12 hours | 73949.22 | 72582.82 | 73778.00 | 0.54% | 1.85% | 2.50% | 8,946 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 1.12x | 2.06x | Quiet |
| Ethereum | 1.28x | 1.79x | Quiet |
| XRP | 0.00x | 1.70x | Quiet |
| BNB | 1.32x | 1.78x | Quiet |
| Solana | 1.52x | 1.58x | Ordinary |
| Dogecoin | 1.35x | 1.51x | Quiet |
| TRON | 1.29x | 1.42x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 2.11x | 1.88x | Ordinary |
| Chainlink | 2.01x | 1.61x | Ordinary |
| Sui | 1.52x | 1.52x | Ordinary |
| Bitcoin Cash | 1.03x | 1.67x | Quiet |
| Hedera | 1.68x | 1.48x | Ordinary |
| Avalanche | 1.80x | 1.55x | Ordinary |
| Litecoin | 1.71x | 1.64x | Ordinary |
| Gram | 2.01x | 1.29x | Strong |
| Shiba Inu | 1.36x | 1.74x | Quiet |
| Uniswap | 1.02x | 1.48x | Quiet |
| Polkadot | 1.03x | 1.49x | Quiet |
| Aave | 1.13x | 1.57x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 1.68x | 1.68x | Ordinary |
| NEAR Protocol | 0.68x | 1.37x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 1.89x | 1.70x | Ordinary |
| Internet Computer | 1.05x | 1.50x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.81x | 1.56x | Ordinary |
| Filecoin | 1.15x | 1.50x | Quiet |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 1.12x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.