Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 3.57x, against 2.09x for a typical PCE release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 3.64x, against a typical 2.55x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $61,098.29 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.46% higher, and an hour later 0.23% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 1.09% of its price, against 0.51% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 25 June 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Personal Consumption Expenditures came in at 0.4% for May 2026, against 0.4% in April 2026. Prices are rising at the same pace as before.
It arrived at the same moment as Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders Excluding Transportation, Personal Income and Outlays, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims, Continued Jobless Claims and Gross Domestic Product Report, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, PCE releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.13x across 18, against 1.81x across 51. This one was not within two weeks of a Fed decision. Its own ratio of 3.57x compares with 1.81x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 2.09x.
What it means
Bitcoin registered a strong reaction to the 25 June 2026 PCE release. Volatility reached 3.57 times the normal quarter-hour range, more than the 2.09x median recorded across 69 PCE prints since 2021. Volume expanded 3.64x against the 2.55x benchmark. The price stood at $61,098.29 at the print, climbed 0.46 percent within fifteen minutes, and finished 0.23 percent higher after one hour while the hourly range widened to 1.09 percent from 0.51 percent beforehand.
This event fell 33 days before the next Federal Reserve decision, placing it outside the two-week window that has historically produced larger Bitcoin moves.
Even so, the 3.57x volatility ratio surpassed the 2.13x median seen in pre-Fed PCE releases and the 1.81x median recorded at other times. The outcome illustrates that proximity to policy meetings is not required for an outsized reaction. Traders observing future PCE prints may therefore weigh the full accompanying data flow rather than calendar position alone when assessing potential volatility.
How it compares
Across 69 PCE releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 2.09x. This one was 1.71 times the usual.
Thin line: PCE's usual, 2.09x. Thick line: this release, 3.57x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 61761.35 | 61098.29 | 61506.00 | 0.66% | 1.07% | 0.03% | 357 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 61761.35 | 61098.29 | 61380.01 | 0.46% | 1.07% | 0.31% | 472 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 61761.35 | 61098.29 | 61419.99 | 0.52% | 1.07% | 0.31% | 564 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 61761.35 | 61098.29 | 61382.34 | 0.46% | 1.07% | 0.31% | 640 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 61761.35 | 61098.29 | 61244.01 | 0.24% | 1.07% | 0.48% | 858 BTC |
| 1 hour | 61761.35 | 61098.29 | 61240.01 | 0.23% | 1.07% | 0.50% | 1,184 BTC |
| 2 hours | 61761.35 | 58115.01 | 59329.16 | -2.98% | 5.90% | 0.86% | 10,976 BTC |
| 4 hours | 61761.35 | 58115.01 | 59742.98 | -2.27% | 5.90% | 1.19% | 16,753 BTC |
| 6 hours | 61761.35 | 58115.01 | 59718.02 | -2.31% | 5.90% | 1.45% | 19,133 BTC |
| 8 hours | 61804.45 | 58115.01 | 59742.98 | -3.41% | 5.97% | 2.06% | 18,820 BTC |
| 12 hours | 61761.35 | 58115.01 | 59771.99 | -2.22% | 5.90% | 2.06% | 22,893 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for PCE | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 3.57x | 2.06x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 3.66x | 1.79x | Exceptional |
| XRP | 1.01x | 1.70x | Quiet |
| BNB | 3.16x | 1.78x | Strong |
| Solana | 3.15x | 1.58x | Strong |
| Dogecoin | 3.32x | 1.51x | Exceptional |
| TRON | 1.75x | 1.42x | Ordinary |
| Cardano | 3.16x | 1.88x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 3.69x | 1.61x | Exceptional |
| Sui | 3.44x | 1.52x | Exceptional |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.38x | 1.67x | Strong |
| Hedera | 3.30x | 1.48x | Exceptional |
| Avalanche | 3.19x | 1.55x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 3.24x | 1.64x | Strong |
| Gram | 0.99x | 1.29x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 2.93x | 1.74x | Strong |
| Uniswap | 2.01x | 1.48x | Strong |
| Polkadot | 3.27x | 1.49x | Exceptional |
| Aave | 1.57x | 1.57x | Ordinary |
| Bittensor | 3.14x | 1.68x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 2.94x | 1.37x | Exceptional |
| Aptos | 3.49x | 1.70x | Exceptional |
| Internet Computer | 3.91x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 2.79x | 1.56x | Strong |
| Filecoin | 3.20x | 1.50x | Exceptional |
What is the Personal Consumption Expenditures?
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is a measure of the prices people in the United States pay for goods and services. PCE accounts for about two-thirds of domestic spending and is a significant driver of gross domestic product (GDP). An estimated total of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis as one way to measure and track changes in the prices of consumer goods over time.Questions about this page
Is 3.57x a lot?
For a PCE release it is strong: the usual is 2.09x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next PCE do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past PCE releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.