The release
Released by the Department of Labor on 16 July 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 208K for the week ending 11th Jul, from 215K in the week ending 4th Jul.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
Measured by Clometrix
POL (prev. MATIC)'s volatility ratio was 1.20x, against 1.40x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.11x, against a typical 1.56x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How POL (prev. MATIC) moved
POL (prev. MATIC) was at $0.0834 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.14% lower, and an hour later 0.3% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.62% of its price, against 0.54% in the hour before.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved POL (prev. MATIC) about as much as those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.46x across 92, against 1.39x across 206. This one came out 13 days before the Federal Reserve's 29 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.20x compares with 1.46x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.
How it compares
Across 298 Initial Claims releases since 2021, POL (prev. MATIC)'s usual price swing is 1.40x. This one was 0.86 times the usual.
Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.40x. Thick line: this release, 1.20x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 0.0834 | 0.08331 | 0.08338 | -0.02% | 0.11% | 0.08% | 82,290 POL |
| 5 minutes | 0.08347 | 0.08331 | 0.08345 | 0.06% | 0.19% | 0.11% | 168,445 POL |
| 10 minutes | 0.0835 | 0.08327 | 0.08327 | -0.16% | 0.28% | 0.30% | 221,727 POL |
| 15 minutes | 0.0835 | 0.08321 | 0.08328 | -0.14% | 0.35% | 0.31% | 314,238 POL |
| 30 minutes | 0.0835 | 0.08319 | 0.08342 | 0.02% | 0.37% | 0.38% | 735,341 POL |
| 1 hour | 0.08371 | 0.08319 | 0.08365 | 0.30% | 0.62% | 0.54% | 1.174M POL |
| 2 hours | 0.08439 | 0.08319 | 0.08429 | 1.06% | 1.42% | 0.81% | 2.973M POL |
| 4 hours | 0.08441 | 0.08254 | 0.08283 | -0.69% | 2.22% | 1.34% | 7.261M POL |
| 6 hours | 0.08441 | 0.08254 | 0.08283 | -0.69% | 2.22% | 1.87% | 8.662M POL |
| 8 hours | 0.08441 | 0.08254 | 0.08283 | 0.19% | 2.22% | 1.18% | 12.243M POL |
| 12 hours | 0.08441 | 0.08142 | 0.08188 | -1.86% | 3.54% | 1.87% | 23.102M POL |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Initial Claims | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.58x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 2.92x | 1.46x | Strong |
| XRP | Not measured | 1.18x | - |
| BNB | 2.19x | 1.42x | Strong |
| Solana | 2.51x | 1.38x | Strong |
| Dogecoin | 2.49x | 1.38x | Strong |
| TRON | 1.34x | 1.33x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 2.17x | 1.35x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 2.01x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Sui | 2.06x | 1.24x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.12x | 1.34x | Strong |
| Hedera | 3.17x | 1.32x | Exceptional |
| Avalanche | 3.03x | 1.42x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 1.52x | 1.39x | Ordinary |
| Gram | 0.00x | 1.02x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.52x | 1.33x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 2.97x | 1.34x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 1.52x | 1.32x | Ordinary |
| Aave | 1.46x | 1.38x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 2.07x | 1.40x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.00x | 1.24x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 2.37x | 1.41x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 1.01x | 1.45x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.20x | 1.40x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 2.38x | 1.27x | Strong |
What is Initial Jobless Claims?
The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.Questions about this page
Is 1.20x a lot?
No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.
Will the next Initial Claims do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range POL (prev. MATIC) moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.