Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 2.58x, against 1.51x for a typical Initial Claims release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.98x, against a typical 1.69x. That is a strong reaction by this release's own standard. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $64,184.24 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 0.46% lower, and an hour later 0.1% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.64% of its price, against 0.29% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Department of Labor on 16 July 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. Initial Jobless Claims fell to 208K for the week ending 11th Jul, from 215K in the week ending 4th Jul.
It arrived at the same moment as Retail Sales, Retail Sales Excluding Automobiles and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Initial Claims releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 1.67x across 93, against 1.43x across 208. This one came out 13 days before the Federal Reserve's 29 July rate decision. Its own ratio of 2.58x compares with 1.67x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 301 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 1.51x.
How it compares
Across 301 Initial Claims releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 1.51x. This one was 1.71 times the usual.
Thin line: Initial Claims's usual, 1.51x. Thick line: this release, 2.58x.
Minute by minute
Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.
| After | High | Low | Close | Change | Range | Range before | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 minute | 64211.85 | 64184.24 | 64203.28 | 0.03% | 0.04% | 0.03% | 13 BTC |
| 5 minutes | 64211.85 | 64144.06 | 64153.39 | -0.05% | 0.11% | 0.11% | 26 BTC |
| 10 minutes | 64211.85 | 63978.44 | 63978.94 | -0.32% | 0.36% | 0.15% | 114 BTC |
| 15 minutes | 64211.85 | 63872.00 | 63888.00 | -0.46% | 0.53% | 0.15% | 226 BTC |
| 30 minutes | 64211.85 | 63838.28 | 63966.01 | -0.34% | 0.58% | 0.27% | 393 BTC |
| 1 hour | 64249.99 | 63838.28 | 64249.99 | 0.10% | 0.64% | 0.29% | 659 BTC |
| 2 hours | 64863.07 | 63838.28 | 64766.02 | 0.90% | 1.58% | 0.29% | 1,881 BTC |
| 4 hours | 64896.00 | 63838.28 | 64546.00 | 0.56% | 1.63% | 0.56% | 3,134 BTC |
| 6 hours | 64896.00 | 63838.28 | 64220.88 | 0.06% | 1.63% | 1.45% | 4,111 BTC |
| 8 hours | 64896.00 | 63838.28 | 64546.00 | 0.60% | 1.63% | 1.71% | 10,023 BTC |
| 12 hours | 64896.00 | 63748.74 | 63800.00 | -0.60% | 1.77% | 1.71% | 6,024 BTC |
Every coin at this release
| Coin | Price swing | Usual for Initial Claims | Reaction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin | 2.58x | 1.50x | Strong |
| Ethereum | 2.92x | 1.46x | Strong |
| XRP | Not measured | 1.18x | - |
| BNB | 2.19x | 1.42x | Strong |
| Solana | 2.51x | 1.38x | Strong |
| Dogecoin | 2.49x | 1.38x | Strong |
| TRON | 1.34x | 1.33x | Quiet |
| Cardano | 2.17x | 1.35x | Strong |
| Chainlink | 2.01x | 1.43x | Strong |
| Sui | 2.06x | 1.24x | Strong |
| Bitcoin Cash | 2.12x | 1.34x | Strong |
| Hedera | 3.17x | 1.32x | Exceptional |
| Avalanche | 3.03x | 1.42x | Exceptional |
| Litecoin | 1.52x | 1.39x | Ordinary |
| Gram | 0.00x | 1.02x | Quiet |
| Shiba Inu | 1.52x | 1.33x | Ordinary |
| Uniswap | 2.97x | 1.34x | Exceptional |
| Polkadot | 1.52x | 1.32x | Ordinary |
| Aave | 1.46x | 1.38x | Quiet |
| Bittensor | 2.07x | 1.40x | Strong |
| NEAR Protocol | 1.00x | 1.24x | Quiet |
| Aptos | 2.37x | 1.41x | Strong |
| Internet Computer | 1.01x | 1.45x | Quiet |
| POL (prev. MATIC) | 1.20x | 1.40x | Quiet |
| Filecoin | 2.38x | 1.27x | Strong |
What is Initial Jobless Claims?
The weekly claims report is released Thursdays at 8:30 a.m. ET by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL). Initial claims are new jobless claims filed by U.S. workers seeking unemployment compensation, included in the unemployment insurance weekly claims report. The report, published since 1967, includes a separate count of workers receiving unemployment insurance benefits, known as continuing claims.Questions about this page
Is 2.58x a lot?
For an Initial Claims release it is strong: the usual is 1.51x. Each report has its own usual size, and its releases show it.
Will the next Initial Claims do the same?
Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past Initial Claims releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.