How Bitcoin reacted to the Gross Domestic Product Report on 29 October 2026

The short answer

Hardly a reaction. In the 15 minutes after the figure came out, Bitcoin's price swung 1.24 times as much as in a normal 15 minutes that day. For a GDP Report release, 1.65 times is usual. An hour later the price was 0.17% higher.

1.24x

Quiet

Trading (volume ratio)
1.15x
usual for GDP Report: 1.92x
Price at 8:30 AM
$80,124.00
15 minutes later
+0.01%
One hour later
+0.17%
range 0.36%, hour before 0.26%
BTC/USDT, 1 minute candles around the release, 8:30 AM America/New York

The dashed orange line is the release. Chart data from Binance.

Open
81,221.39
Close
77,020.22
24h change
-5.45%
24h high
81,971.00
24h low
76,855.52
24h volume
26,201 BTC

The release

Released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on 29 October 2026 at 8:30 AM EDT. The Gross Domestic Product Report came in at 3.4% for 2026 3rd Quarter, against 2.2% in 2026 2nd Quarter. The economy's output is rising faster than before.

It arrived at the same moment as Personal Income and Outlays, Personal Consumption Expenditures, Core Personal Consumption Expenditures, Initial Jobless Claims and Continued Jobless Claims, so the reaction measured on this page belongs to all of them together.

Measured by Clometrix

Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 1.24x, against 1.65x for a typical GDP Report release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 1.15x, against a typical 1.92x. Under 1.5x is not a reaction at all: the market barely noticed this release. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.

How Bitcoin moved

Bitcoin was at $80,124.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was unchanged, and an hour later 0.17% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 0.36% of its price, against 0.26% in the hour before.

What made it matter

Since 2021, GDP Report releases in the two weeks before a Fed decision have moved Bitcoin more than those at other times: a median volatility ratio of 2.22x across 16, against 1.58x across 53. This one came out the day after the Federal Reserve's 28 October rate decision. Its own ratio of 1.24x compares with 1.58x for those, so it moved the price less than its circumstances would suggest.

How it compares

Across 69 GDP Report releases since 2021, Bitcoin's usual price swing is 1.65x. This one was 0.75 times the usual.

MutedOrdinaryStrongExceptional

Thin line: GDP Report's usual, 1.65x. Thick line: this release, 1.24x. Under 1.5x counts as no reaction at all.

Minute by minute

Each row is the time after the release, with the same length of time before it for comparison.

After High Low Close Change Range Range before Volume
1 minute 80268.20 80104.47 80154.01 0.04% 0.20% 0.05% 39 BTC
5 minutes 80268.20 80026.56 80074.01 -0.06% 0.30% 0.10% 97 BTC
10 minutes 80268.20 80014.18 80159.96 0.04% 0.32% 0.10% 144 BTC
15 minutes 80268.20 80014.18 80128.01 0.01% 0.32% 0.14% 175 BTC
30 minutes 80268.20 80014.18 80058.01 -0.08% 0.32% 0.15% 247 BTC
1 hour 80300.00 80014.18 80258.01 0.17% 0.36% 0.26% 536 BTC
2 hours 80510.01 79916.00 80427.21 0.38% 0.74% 0.39% 1,426 BTC
4 hours 81971.00 79916.00 81423.98 1.60% 2.51% 0.63% 4,613 BTC
6 hours 81971.00 79916.00 80784.00 0.82% 2.51% 0.68% 5,903 BTC
8 hours 81971.00 79866.00 81423.98 1.68% 2.57% 1.86% 6,220 BTC
12 hours 81971.00 76855.52 77020.22 -4.03% 6.24% 1.86% 20,196 BTC

Every coin at this release

Coin Price swing Usual for GDP Report Reaction
Bitcoin 1.24x 1.65x Quiet
Ethereum 1.46x 1.74x Quiet
XRP 0.00x 1.41x Quiet
BNB 0.88x 1.64x Quiet
Solana 1.51x 1.49x Ordinary
Dogecoin 1.28x 1.47x Quiet
TRON 0.67x 1.34x Quiet
Cardano 1.09x 1.50x Quiet
Chainlink 1.31x 1.68x Quiet
Sui 1.09x 1.50x Quiet
Bitcoin Cash 0.89x 1.59x Quiet
Hedera 1.16x 1.37x Quiet
Avalanche 0.99x 1.59x Quiet
Litecoin 1.10x 1.51x Quiet
Gram 0.00x 1.02x Quiet
Shiba Inu 0.99x 1.48x Quiet
Uniswap 1.00x 1.49x Quiet
Polkadot 1.14x 1.49x Quiet
Aave 1.27x 1.45x Quiet
Bittensor 1.02x 1.43x Quiet
NEAR Protocol 1.25x 1.38x Quiet
Aptos 1.76x 1.67x Ordinary
Internet Computer 1.01x 1.45x Quiet
POL (prev. MATIC) 1.29x 1.61x Quiet
Filecoin 1.14x 1.47x Quiet

What is the Gross Domestic Product Report?

The GDP report is one of the BEA's most crucial outputs. It tells us the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. GDP gives the public an indication of an economy's size. Moreover, when compared against prior periods, this data can reveal whether the economy is expanding (producing more goods and services) or contracting (registering declining output). The direction of GDP helps central banks determine whether it is necessary to intervene with monetary policy or not.

Every GDP Report release for Bitcoin

Questions about this page

Is 1.24x a lot?

No. Under 1.5x the market barely noticed the release.

Will the next GDP Report do the same?

Nobody can say. A forecast shows the range Bitcoin moved in after past GDP Report releases, so you can plan for the likely size of the move.

Does GDP move crypto, and what are the advance, second and third estimates?

The GDP Report has a median Bitcoin price swing of 1.65x since 2021, which places it in Tier 3. The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases an advance estimate, then a second estimate and a third estimate in successive months. Clometrix measures each published release.

More questions · Glossary

Disclaimer

The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.