Data Analysis
Measured by Clometrix
Bitcoin's volatility ratio was 10.11x, against 4.29x for a typical Fed Interest Rate release since 2021. Its volume ratio was 17.90x, against a typical 5.81x. That is more than twice what this release usually does. Both compare the quarter hour of the release with an ordinary quarter hour that same day, where 1.00x is no change: volatility is how far the price ranged, volume how much traded.
How Bitcoin moved
Bitcoin was at $47,830.00 when the figure came out. Fifteen minutes later it was 2.37% higher, and an hour later 1.77% higher. Its high-to-low range in the hour after was 4.28% of its price, against 2.59% in the hour before.
The release
Released by the Federal Open Market Committee on 15 December 2021 at 2:00 PM EST. The Federal Open Market Committee held its target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00–0.25%.
What made it matter
Since 2021, Fed decisions that changed the rate have moved Bitcoin more than those that held it: a median volatility ratio of 5.37x across 18, against 3.31x across 28. This one held it. Its own ratio of 10.11x compares with 3.31x for those, so it moved the price more than its circumstances alone would suggest.
Its record
Across 46 Fed Interest Rate releases since 2021, Bitcoin's median volatility ratio is 4.29x.
What it means
Bitcoin's reaction to the December 2021 Federal Open Market Committee decision stood out as exceptional against the event's record since 2021. The volatility ratio reached 10.11x in the quarter hour of the release, more than double the 4.29x median across 46 prior announcements. Volume expanded to 17.90x against the typical 5.81x, confirming the move exceeded what a rate hold normally produces.
Bitcoin rose 2.37 percent within fifteen minutes and remained 1.77 percent higher after one hour, while the high-to-low range widened to 4.28 percent of spot from 2.59 percent in the preceding hour. The committee left the target range unchanged at 0.00 to 0.25 percent.
Rate-hold announcements have historically generated a 3.31x median volatility ratio, well below the 5.37x median recorded when the committee altered the target. Traders monitoring future decisions may note that the magnitude of the surprise relative to the event's usual footprint can override the simple distinction between holds and changes when assessing potential volatility.
About Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has eight regularly scheduled meetings each year, but they can meet more often if the need should arise. The meetings are not held in public and are therefore the subject of much speculation on Wall Street, as analysts attempt to predict whether the Fed will tighten or loosen the money supply with a resulting increase or decrease in interest rates.
Disclaimer
The data analysis, forecasted results and projections provided herein are based on historical price action and market trends. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information, these predictions are speculative and should not be considered a guarantee of future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading and investing involve significant risk, and you should conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. We do not assume any liability for any losses that may result from reliance on this information.
BTC-USDT
Bitcoin
Open
48,057.65Close
48,894.6524h Change
837.00 (1.71%)24h High
49,500.0024h Low
46,547.0024h Volume
49,779 BTCUS Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision
Federal Open Market Committee
15th December, 2021, 2:00PM Timezone: America/New York
Chart Data from Binance
Observations
| Time | Open | High | Low | Close | Change | Amplitude | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Minute | |||||||
| Before | 47728.56 | 47856.13 | 47709.64 | 47829.99 | 0.21% | 0.31% | 49 BTC |
| During | 47830.00 | 47830.00 | 47292.75 | 47514.24 | -0.66% | 1.12% | 444 BTC |
| 5 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 47606.37 | 47856.13 | 47541.74 | 47829.99 | 0.47% | 0.66% | 297 BTC |
| During | 47830.00 | 48730.01 | 47212.00 | 48444.76 | 1.27% | 3.12% | 2,465 BTC |
| 10 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 48085.05 | 48249.96 | 47497.20 | 47829.99 | -0.53% | 1.56% | 882 BTC |
| During | 47830.00 | 49235.43 | 47212.00 | 49176.99 | 2.74% | 4.11% | 4,794 BTC |
| 15 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 47677.04 | 48249.96 | 47497.20 | 47829.99 | 0.32% | 1.56% | 1,402 BTC |
| During | 47830.00 | 49259.98 | 47212.00 | 48964.27 | 2.32% | 4.16% | 5,806 BTC |
| 30 Minutes | |||||||
| Before | 47288.99 | 48249.96 | 47260.77 | 47829.99 | 1.13% | 2.05% | 2,438 BTC |
| During | 47830.00 | 49259.98 | 47212.00 | 48086.35 | 0.53% | 4.16% | 8,288 BTC |
| 1 Hour | |||||||
| Before | 47086.30 | 48249.96 | 47011.29 | 47829.99 | 1.55% | 2.57% | 3,131 BTC |
| During | 47830.00 | 49259.98 | 47212.00 | 48674.90 | 1.74% | 4.16% | 10,878 BTC |
| 2 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 47004.32 | 48249.96 | 46861.49 | 47829.99 | 1.73% | 2.88% | 4,932 BTC |
| During | 47830.00 | 49500.00 | 47212.00 | 49211.84 | 2.81% | 4.62% | 15,569 BTC |
| 4 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 47369.99 | 48249.96 | 46547.00 | 47829.99 | 0.96% | 3.53% | 10,540 BTC |
| During | 47830.00 | 49500.00 | 47212.00 | 48747.30 | 1.88% | 4.62% | 19,004 BTC |
| 6 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 47588.42 | 48249.96 | 46547.00 | 47829.99 | 0.51% | 3.53% | 13,634 BTC |
| During | 47830.00 | 49500.00 | 47212.00 | 49052.45 | 2.49% | 4.62% | 21,719 BTC |
| 8 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 48057.65 | 48850.00 | 47212.87 | 47370.00 | -1.45% | 3.35% | 11,794 BTC |
| During | 47369.99 | 49500.00 | 46547.00 | 48747.30 | 2.83% | 5.97% | 29,545 BTC |
| 12 Hours | |||||||
| Before | 48057.65 | 48850.00 | 46547.00 | 47829.99 | -0.48% | 4.71% | 22,334 BTC |
| During | 47830.00 | 49500.00 | 47212.00 | 48894.65 | 2.18% | 4.62% | 27,445 BTC |
